By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position with a target price of R41 and recommend a stop-loss at R33.
Quilter is a full-service wealth management company, providing investment advisory, financial planning, portfolio management as well as wrap platform solutions for institutional and retail clients. These are delivered through an advice channel (restricted and independent advisors) as well as an open-market channel (third-party independent advisors).
Following a series of disposals over the last few years, Quilter is now mainly focussed on the United Kingdom (UK) market.
Technically, a price at the start of Wave 5 (Elliott Wave theory) makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart as well as the notation). The start of Wave 5 often represents the final leg of a broader impulsive trend, often characterised by renewed investor confidence and strong upward momentum. This phase can offer a favourable entry point for traders and investors looking to capture the final upward move in the trend before a larger correction or reversal sets in.
The price movement is also reminiscent of an accumulation phase (Wyckoff Price Cycle), which also supports a bullish bias.
The price is trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~ R33.69.
Fading downside price momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the sideways trajectory according to the On-balance volume (OBV), both support our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | QLT |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 49.61 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 34.64% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 2.73% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 35.33 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 38.78 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 26.15 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price made relatively strong moves over the previous twelve months; however, year-to-date growth has been modest. Technical indicators are currently pointing to an uplift in the near term. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Growth (%) | -8.08 | 7.92 | 8.26 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Growth (%) | 5.08 | 9.68 | 7.35 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 14.48 | 13.41 | 12.39 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.24 | 4.65 | 4.99 | |
| Current market volatility points to lower earnings in the short term, however, the medium-term picture is more positive. The dividend yield is attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | MRP - BUY (Continue to hold) |
NTC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 219.84 | 14.14 | 13.22 |
| Current | 240.00 | 14.65 | 12.97 |
| Movement | +9.2% | +3.6% | -1.9% |
|
The start of Wave 5 in the Elliott wave price theory remains of interest. Has dipped below its 200-SMA. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R267 with a trailing stop-loss at R221. Exit the trade on 9 June 2025. |
A double-bottom pattern in the price action remains of interest. Trading above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.90. Exit the trade on 21 July 2025. |
The price is at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis. Continues to test its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted, which is a concern to the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | BVT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
ABG - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 239.73 | 171.50 |
| Current | 234.65 | 167.24 |
| Movement | -2.1% | -2.5% |
|
An inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R274 with a trailing stop-loss at R226. Exit the trade on 1 September 2025. |
A favourable peer comparison for the share remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R200 with a trailing stop-loss at R160. Exit the trade on 14 July 2025. |
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