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Economics
commentary

Reports on consumer and property economics


Market strength indicators show that demand is moderating, but still above 2019 levels. The slowing trend in house price growth continued in October, with the FNB House Price Index decelerating to 3.0% y/y for October, from 3.2% in September. The slowing pace of price growth is consistent with the waning interest rate induced demand and a lagged recovery in labour markets.


 

Economics Weekly 19 November 2021


After slashing interest rates to historical lows following the onset of the pandemic, the MPC hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% at the November meeting. Domestic growth for 2021 was revised slightly lower, reflecting a larger-than-expected impact of the July unrest and factors such as load-shedding, but still shows a solid rebound from last year's contraction. Headline inflation was steady at 5.0% y/y in October and increased by 0.2% m/m, and retail sales volumes rebounded by 2.1% y/y in September.


 

Economics Weekly 12 November 2021


As expected, the MTBPS did not deviate from the fiscal consolidation path and showed debt ratios stabilising at lower levels than previously estimated. Total mining output contracted by 3.4% y/y in September and total manufacturing output increased by 1.3% y/y in September.


 

MTBPS Review


Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has tabled the 2021 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. Treasury is encouragingly determined to keep the ongoing fiscal consolidation path intact. Treasury expects real GDP level to return to pre-pandemic level in 2022, which is a year earlier than previously projected.


 

Economics Weekly 05 November 2021


In the upcoming Medium Term Budget Policy Statement we don’t expect there to be a signal of any deviation from the current fiscal consolidation path. The key message that this MTBPS could convey is implementation and the need to do more to support growth and employment creation. The nominal trade surplus narrowed to R22.24 billion in September, domestic new vehicle sales slowed by 4.9% and the Absa manufacturing PMI recorded 53.6 index points in October.


 

Economic Update

Economic Update July 2021


We expect economic growth to rebound strongly to at least 4.1% (versus our earlier forecast of 3.7%) in 2021 after contracting sharply by 7.0% in 2020. The more accommodative monetary policy stance along with the elevated terms of trade and economic growth rebound from South Africa's major trading partners underpin our growth rebound.


 

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Reports on consumer and property economics




 

Economics Weekly




 

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2021 Economic updates


July

Economic updates

2021 Reports on consumer and property economics


October

Property Barometer

September

Property Barometer

Property update

July

Property Barometer

June

Property Barometer

May

Property Barometer

April

Property Barometer

February

Property Barometer

January

Property Barometer

2020 Reports on consumer and property economics


November

Property Barometer

September

Property Barometer

August

Property Barometer

July

Estate Agents Survey Property Barometer

May

Property Barometer

April

Property Barometer

February

Property Barometer

January

Property Barometer