The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the repo rate by 25-basis points (bps) to 7.25%, effective 25 September, in a unanimous decision and in line with our and market expectations. The move reflects a deterioration in the near-term inflation outlook following the renewed surge in fuel prices, alongside rising global interest rates and concerns that the current supply shock could become embedded in domestic price-setting. The decision marks a clear shift from the July pause, although the SARB's baseline policy path does not point to an aggressive tightening cycle.
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