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Economics
commentary

Economics Weekly 15 March 2019


The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index was released this week. The reading showed a decline to a disappointingly low 28 points during 1Q19. Going forward, a growth-enhancing recovery in private fixed investment will require sustained improvement in business confidence. Mining production registered its third consecutive contraction, falling 3.3% y/y in January 2019. In line with our expectation of a positive print, manufacturing production increased by 0.3% y/y in January 2019.


 

Economics Weekly 8 March 2019


The FNB national house price index came out this week and showed that prices started the year on a softer note. Relatively weaker demand shifts bargaining power in favour of buyers and tenants. The 4Q18 GDP grew by 1.4% q/q (saar), higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 1.2%, but below our expectations of 2.2%. The current account deficit narrowed to -2.2% of GDP in 4Q18. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa took the long-awaited decision regarding Eskom's electricity tariff hike application over the next three financial years.


 

Economics Weekly 1 March 2019


Next week will see the much-anticipated release of the final quarter GDP print for 2018 on Tuesday followed by the current account on Thursday. We anticipate economic growth to improve in the coming year supported by a rebound in private sector fixed investment and steady growth in household consumption expenditure.


 

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