By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa.
Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. (CDAY) is a global human capital management software company that provides cloud-based solutions for human resources, payroll, benefits, workforce management, and talent management. Its flagship product is Dayforce, a platform that integrates all these functions into a single solution. The company recently announced plans to transition the company's brand to Dayforce.
The Dayforce customer base has increased from 482 in 2012 to 6 346 customers as of 30 September 2023. These customers (single organisations, such as a company, a non-profit association, an educational institution, or
Technically, the stock is exhibiting price movement that challenges the upper boundary of an emerging symmetrical triangle pattern (see the black converging trendlines as well as the insert). This suggests an increasing level of investor interest and buying pressure, as the stock approaches a critical resistance level in the pattern. If the price successfully breaks through this upper trendline, it will signal a bullish trend.
The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average of ~$67.50, suggesting a stable and a sustained positive trend.
The start of upside momentum, according to the MACD indicator as well as upwards movement of the on-balance volume indicator, supports a bullish stance.
Share Information
| Share Code | CDAY |
|---|---|
| Industry | Commercial & Professional Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 10.84 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -3.92% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 3.47% |
| Current Price (USD) | 69.45 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 79.66 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 55.62 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The stock price has made a decent recovery since the turn of the year, with various technical indicators pointing to further upside ahead. |
Consensus expectations
(Bloomberg)
| FY22 | FY23E | FY24E | FY25E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 0.77 | 1.32 | 1.69 | 2.15 |
| Growth (%) | 71.43 | 27.65 | 27.42 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 52.61 | 41.22 | 32.35 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Consensus is quite positive on the stock, with strong growth expected yearly over the medium-term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
| Share Name and position | AMZN - Profit Take (Close the position) |
XLP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
J - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 138.07 | 70.66 | 133.83 |
| Current | 161.26 | 73.46 | 138.31 |
| Movement | 16.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| We closed the position on 29 January 2024 to protect profits. |
A price retracing from the lower range of the Bollinger bands remains of interest. The ETF crossed above its 200-day moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $76 with a trailing stop-loss of $71.80. Exit the trade by 9 February 2024. |
The price is holding above key support. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator suggests an imminent shift in the price trend.
Our profit target remains at $150, with a trailing stop-loss at $130.70. Exit the trade by 23 February 2024. |
| Share Name and position | HSY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CARZ - Buy (Continue to hold) |
FTV - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 191.47 | 53.61 | 74.29 |
| Current | 197.38 | 55.21 | 74.70 |
| Movement | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
|
The price appears to be initiating the fifth wave in the Elliott Wave analysis. The stock remains below 200-day moving average. Upside price momentum remains supportive.
Our profit target remains at $220 with a trailing stop-loss at $190. Exit the trade around 26 April 2024. |
An incomplete symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. The ETF remains just above its 200-day moving average. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target remains at $60 with a trailing stop-loss at $53. Exit the trade around 22 May 2024. |
The stock looks set to reach an all-time high. It is trading above its 200-day moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $81 with a trailing stop-loss at $72.80. Exit the trade around 10 May 2024. |
