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Trade Ideas

Local Trade Idea: Prosus N.V. (PRX) - BUY

 

Prosus is the international internet assets division of Naspers. It is the largest listed consumer internet company in Europe and is one of the largest technology investors in the world, operating across a variety of platforms and geographies. Among its largest investments are Tencent (28.9% stake), OLX, PayU, Delivery Hero (24.5% owned), and C-Trip (6% owned).

Technically, a price above key support makes for an attractive investment opportunity (see the black support trendline on the main chart and the insert).

Support levels are based on lows where buyers have previously entered the market. A share price above key support indicates that there is sustained demand for the share at that price level, and that buyers are willing to purchase the share if it dips towards that level. A strong level of support may help prevent a further decline in the share price.

According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the stock will be overbought at ~R1 610. This classifies our profit target of R1 606 as realistic.

We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade.

Share Information

Share code PRX
Industry Media
Market capatalisation (ZAR) 2786.64 billion
One year total return 80.48%
Return year-to-date 18.19%
Current price(ZAR) 1391.98
52 weeek high(ZAR) 1488.20
52 week low(ZAR) 687.72
Financial year end March
Closing paragraph The share price has been trading sideways following a sharp rebound over the last year or so. Expect moderate to high volatility in the price.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 1.93 2.12 3.68 4.83
Growth (%) 10.07 73.45 31.16
Dividend Per Share (USD) 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.12
Growth (%) -21.43 23.42 -12.05
Forward PE (times) 35.79 20.63 15.73
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 0.15 0.19 0.16
Closing paragraph Earnings growth expectations remain attractive over the medium term.

Buy or Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis :

  • The lower panel shows the Three Outside Up Japanese Candlestick pattern, indicated by a reading of 1, and suggests a potential reversal of the recent downtrend
  • The pattern begins with a long red candlestick (bearish), representing a significant sell-off. The second candlestick opens below the previous period's close and closes above the previous periods open. This candlestick's body is usually larger than the first candlestick's body (bullish). The third candlestick opens above the second candlestick's close and closes above the second candlestick's high. This candlestick's body is usually smaller than the previous candlestick, but its closing price is higher, indicative of bullish momentum returning.
  • The recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator - which uses volume-flow to predict share price movements - indicates that money remains in the share.
  • The share remains above its 200-day simple moving average - a major psychological level.
  • Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is also supportive of a bullish trend.
  • The RSI is in oversold territory when the reading is below 30 and overbought when the reading is above 70. The current reading of the RSI is at 60, leaving room for upside price potential.
  • Our entry range is between R1 345 to R1 445. Our upside target is set at R1 606 (+15.7% upside potential from current levels).
  • Time to exit is mid-August 2023. Keep the option open to close the trade if the price reaches our profit target in a shorter time.
  • A price below R1 295 (-6.7% from current levels) is a major concern for downside potential and is recommended as a stop-loss.

Long term fundamental view:

  • Prosus is well-diversified across different industries, i.e., internet, social media, classifieds, food delivery, travel, and geographies.
  • The group will continue to invest in its core areas of food delivery, classifieds, online retail, and the payments businesses. It has a substantial net cash pile, providing capacity to extend and enhance its portfolio and fund growth in its less mature investments.
  • The company still trades at a deep discount to its underlying value and management is actively taking steps to reduce the discount.
  • In terms of the group's latest interim results, the softer bottom-line performance was well guided for by management with the fair value losses, particularly in Tencent, being driven by broad market weakness and some short-term China specific constraints. Still, most of the businesses continued to deliver decent top-line growth while navigating a challenging and fast-changing environment.
  • Tencent remains the key value driver for Naspers and Prosus N.V. and we maintain our positive stance on all three counters.
  • Tencent's 4Q22 results were mixed but profitability remained robust with margin expansion testament to the company's continued focus on cost efficiency and containment. Management's outlook was upbeat as the company stands to benefit from the rebound in the Chinese economy, with reports of easing regulatory scrutiny on the fast-growth internet sector likely to provide further upside
  • Risks to our fundamental view include weaker macroeconomic conditions and forex depreciation within emerging markets, regulatory delays as well as price competition in key markets. Higher-than-expected development costs in start-up internet businesses are also a concern over the short term.
  • Tencent remains the biggest single exposure for Prosus and weakness here could see Prosus' share price come under pressure.
  • Other risks, particularly in the Chinese market, include a slower recovery in the Chinese economy and increased competition in the Chinese online gaming and social networking markets.

Share Name and position TFG - BUY (Continue to hold) BAW - BUY (Continue to hold) MNP - BUY (Continue to hold)
Entry 83.54 85.56 284.46
Current 93.60 90.28 290.45
Movement 12% 5.5% 2.1%
Summary text The share is still trading below its 200-day simple moving average. However, fading downside price momentum supports the predominant trend.

Our take profit target is set at R132, with a trailing stop-loss at R72.15. Time exit: 8 July 2023.
The share price crossed just above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports the predominant trend.

Our take profit target remains at R104, with a trailing stop-loss at R82.65. Time exit: 3 July 2023.
The price remains close to key support and is testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum supports the bullish trend.

Take profit target set at R328, with a trailing stop-loss at R272. Time exit: 22 May 2023.

Share Name and position OMU - BUY (Continue to hold) LHC - BUY (Continue to hold) VOD - BUY (Continue to hold)
Entry 11.67 19.30 126.50
Current 11.89 19.43 126.13
Movement 1.9% 0.7% -0.3%
Summary text The price is counter-testing a bearish trend and remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.

Take profit target is R16, with a trailing stop-loss at R10. Time exit: 17 November 2023.
The price is worth monitoring as it is still near a major support level. The share is trading above its 200-day simple moving average.

Take profit target set at R22.20, with a trailing stop-loss at R18.20. Time exit: 26 June 2023.
The price is hovering near a significant support level and is testing its 200-day simple moving average.

Take profit target set at R144, with a trailing stop-loss at R120. Time exit: 1 May 2023.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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