Economics Weekly
2025- It's giving volatility
As 2024 ended, we knew that the new year would sustain uncertainty and volatility in line with unfolding global fracturing. We were also worried about which campaign promises would materialise in a Trump 2.0 presidency, and we figured that policy uncertainty was sufficiently high, but the way it has been heightened further is unprecedented.
11 April 2025
Economics Weekly
2025 Budget Review: Balancing fiscal discipline and economic growth
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has delivered his first budget under a multi-party Government of National Unity (GNU) amid global uncertainty and trade tensions. The budget prioritises fiscal consolidation while investing in infrastructure and supporting vulnerable households.
12 March 2025
Economics Weekly
2025 Budget preview: Balancing fiscal consolidation and growth priorities
14 February 2025
Economics Weekly
Consumer credit trends in 3Q24: A mixed outlook for borrowers
The South African consumer credit market experienced moderate growth in 3Q24 (2.8% q/q), reflecting a mix of resilient demand and persistent financial strain. While this represents a slowdown from the 5.5% growth in Q2, it signals a potential cyclical turning point in credit supply, with a 1.0% y/y increase compared to a 1.6% contraction in 2Q24. That said, lenders remained cautious, as shown by high credit rejection rates (67.6%, down slightly from 68.0% in Q2). In this piece, we analyse the latest National Credit Regulator data.
07 February 2025
Economics Weekly
Multiple risks abound but sticking to fundamentals should usher in another cut
24 January 2025
Economics weekly
SARB maintains gradual cutting cycle
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a 25bps cut at their November meeting yesterday, as expected, and their cautious approach prevails. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is now 50bps into the local cutting cycle, while the policy rate is 75bps down in the United States and over 100bps down in the Euro area. While some spectators may have anticipated a 50bps cut, the MPC made it clear that it was not a consideration in their discussions and, like the Fed, the SARB is signalling that it is not in a hurry to neutralise interest rates. A gradual cutting cycle should stabilise upside inflation risks, and the MPC considers the outlook as balanced.
22 November 2024
Economics weekly
2024 MTBPS: Emphasis on public-private infrastructure investment for inclusive and sustainable growth
01 November 2024
Economics weekly
2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement: Balancing consolidation and growth
30 October 2024
Economics weekly
Budget Preview: 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement
On 30 October 2024, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the 2024 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), offering an updated view of the medium-term fiscal framework. This will be the first MTBPS presented under the Government of National Unity (GNU), and it is expected to reinforce the government's ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts.
25 October 2024
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