Here and now
Emigration away from the big metropolises - and notably out of South Africa's traditional business heartland of Gauteng - is currently making heroes of coastal towns such as Plettenberg Bay (Plett), Hermanus, Ballito, Mosselbay and Gansbaai. A poll conducted by BusinessTech also shows that the city of Mbombela (Nelspruit) remains a popular choice, as do the Gauteng suburbs of Waterfall and Fourways.
According to statistics shared with BusinessTech by Lew Geffen Sotheby's International Realty, Plett has recorded another bumper year of property sales, which broke through the R2 billion mark in 2021 for the first time in its history. Prices are up 26% and sales are increasing by 44%, according to the agency.
It's a similar story in Hermanus, another Western Cape gem, which is attracting both local and international buyers. In fact, the Western Cape in general is seeing sustained interest from high-end
home owners, notes Preggie Pillay, CEO of Commercial Property Finance at FNB.
What is it?
Not to be confused with emigration out of South Africa to another country, semigration is linked to a desire for a better quality of life. Of course, semigration is cheaper than emigrating. And it's certainly less complicated. But it still comes with a paper trail and careful consideration of issues such as schooling, access to infrastructure (such as international airports) and the availability of job opportunities.
'Those who chose to semigrate may be moving out of the big metropolises, but they still believe South Africa offers a good lifestyle as well as personal and professional possibilities', says Pillay. The areas deemed more secure, offering better lifestyles and opportunities are greatly in demand currently; attracting incomers and driving up prices in those areas - often at the expense of other regions and the existing residents of these small towns and
coastal enclaves. John Loos, Senior Economist: Commercial Property Finance, explains that right now 'major coastal areas are outperforming Gauteng'. This migration of people - and sometimes businesses - to other parts of the country (often from Gauteng) is an important trend to watch; both from a residential and commercial property perspective as well as for its economic implications.
That said, semigration in South Africa is not an entirely new trend.
What's behind it?
'The net inflow of highly skilled and often affluent people to the Western Cape has been strong for over a decade, as many look for quality of life and local governments that function better,' explains Loos. 'More recently, this migration has broadened to the Southern Cape and West Coast regions of that province. The KwaZulu-Natal coast has also been a beneficiary. Gauteng, it would seem, has been the net loser of these skilled migrants.'
As the coastal cities 'chip away' at Gauteng, it is also becoming clearer that if Gauteng does not develop a new competitive advantage it may continue sliding. This is particularly relevant given the level of talent leaving the province.
Who is making the move?
Makhosini Ndlovu, FNB Head of Product: Commercial Property Finance, points out that 'it's top- end senior managers' who are semigrating. 'Your medium bottom middle to lower level employees are still finding opportunities in Gauteng,' he adds, noting that as a result of this strong base 'we are still bullish' in the Gauteng market.
Pillay echoes this point, adding that - for now - 'the youth still want to get to Jo'burg. Unless that changes there will still be demand, but not at the high-end level we are seeing in the Western Cape.'
One reason for this is the key issue of municipal performance, which is vastly different across the country with the Western Cape largely seen as the only province delivering at this crucial local level. 'This is a countrywide issue,' notes Ndlovu, and it's repercussions can clearly be felt in the steady move towards places that are perceived to be getting the basics right.
If semigration continues or even accelerates, further skewing South Africa's internal economic balance, then the ball will be in the court of the big metros to reinvent and revitalise their image as a desirable place to call home.
