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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Nike Inc. (NKE US) - BUY

 

Nike Inc., the world's leading shoe and apparel company, designs, develops and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products for men, women, and children. Nike owns over 1 000 retail stores worldwide, with 36% of these stores in the United States.

The company is a leader in the athletic footwear and apparel space, with long-term growth being driven by product innovation and digital expansion, coupled with more personalised consumer experiences.

Technically, the price is trading above major support (see the black solid trendline on the main chart). A stock consistently staying above the support level suggests that there are enough buyers at that price, preventing it from going lower. If a stock remains above its key support level, it often indicates bullishness as many investors assume the stock is approaching, but not breaking (lower through) its support.

The stock is trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~$112.

Our bullish bias is supported by the start of upside price momentum, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, as well as the recent steep upwards trajectory of the On-balance Volume (OBV) indicator.

Share Information

Share code NKE
Industry Consumer Durables & Apparel
Market Capital (USD) 160.07 billion
One year total return 16.09%
Return year-to-date -9.27%
Current price (USD) 105.18
52 week high (USD) 131.31
52 week low (USD) 87.89
Financial year end May
Closing paragraph The share price is starting to recover, with various technical indicators pointing toward decent upside from current levels.

Consensus expectations

(Bloomberg)

FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 3.23 3.74 4.37 5.02
Growth (%) 15.63 16.89 14.93
Dividend Per Share (USD) 1.33 1.42 1.56 1.73
Growth (%) 7.09 10.15 10.81
Forward PE (times) 28.16 24.09 20.96
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 1.35 1.49 1.65
Closing paragraph Analysts are bullish on growth ahead amid easing supply-chain pressures as well as an overall improvement in economic conditions.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel shows occurrences of Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence signals. A reading of 1 indicates when such a divergence occurred. Bullish divergence, especially when referenced with the RSI indicator, often hints at a potential reversal in the prevailing downtrend. It occurs when the price of a stock makes a lower low, but the RSI makes a higher low (see the insert).
  • Our entry range is between $103 and $108, or as close as possible to the current reference price of $105.18. A drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to negate the idea.
  • Our target price is $118, which represents a gain of ~12.2% from current levels. This level is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • Forward calculations of the RSI suggest that the stock will be in overbought territory at around $130, making our profit target realistic.
  • The current RSI reading of 55, compared to readings of 30 for oversold territory and 70 for overbought territory, leaves sufficient room for further upside.
  • Our proposed time to exit is towards early February 2024, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • A drop below $100 (~4.9% downside from current levels) is a major concern for downside potential and is recommended as a stop-loss level.
  • We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure at a break above $108.

Long-term fundamental view:

  • Nike footwear is the company's leading product offering, accounting for more than 65% of sales led by the iconic Jordan brand and other collections. Nike Apparel accounts for ~30% of sales and Nike Equipment adds another 5%.
  • The company generates around 43% of sales in North America (mostly the US), with more than 25% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Greater China accounts for about 15% of revenue and nearly 15% comes from the rest of the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America.
  • The industry is poised for healthy growth over the next decade as the adoption of effective strategies and technological advancements present opportunities for growth across markets. Thematically, the growing number of health and fitness conscious consumers around the world underpins the growth of the sports and lifestyle market. In the same way, the high demand for streetwear— which brings activewear into the broader fashion realm, is also fuelling the activewear industry's growth.
  • The group's deep connection with its customers separates it from its peers, especially as consumers continue to gravitate towards brands that provide a unique experience both in stores and online.
  • Looking at recent results, the group had a decent start to FY24. The top-line figure was broadly in-line with guidance, with growth supported by solid demand for footwear and equipment across most geographies (China was particularly quite strong). This did, however, slightly miss consensus forecasts as demand for apparel remained weaker than expected and growth in North America lagged. The gross margin was a touch weaker as higher raw material costs were not fully passed on to consumers, while adverse forex impacts continued to weigh. Nevertheless, operating costs were well-controlled and, despite the decline in profitability, bottom-line growth was still ahead of expectations, with the group also benefitting from a lower effective tax rate.
  • Guidance for the second quarter was a bit soft, but the outlook for the remainder of the year was decent and remains in-line with market expectations. The group will continue to rely on its brand resilience, consumer connection, and pipeline of innovative products to build and sustain growth. The group's deep connection with its customers separates it from its peers, especially as consumers continue to gravitate towards brands that provide a unique experience, both in stores and online.
  • Potential risks to the company include declines in consumer discretionary spending driven by economic pressures. Aggressive competition and innovation from rivals are also threats. Fluctuations in inflation and currency exchange rates could result in lower revenues, higher costs and decreased margins and earnings. Now, more than ever, failure to maintain reputation, brand image, and culture could negatively impact business.

Share Name and position HSTM - Profit Take
(Close the position)
AZO - Stop-loss
(Close the position)
MSFT - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 22.35 2556.06 331.32
Current 25.2 2416.54 330.53
Movement 12.8% -5.5% -0.2%
Summary text The trade has reached our take-profit level and we closed the position. The stock breached our stop-loss level, leading us to close the position. The development of a bullish flag pattern remains of interest. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum provides further support.

Our profit target is $365 with a trailing stop-loss at $318. Exit the position around 12 January 2024.

Share Name and position GILD - Buy
(Continue to hold)
COO - Buy
(Continue to hold)
HST - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 80.00 330.03 16.26
Current 78.15 321.51 15.77
Movement -2.3% -2.6% -3.0%
Summary text The development of a bullish flag pattern remains attractive. The stock is testing its 200-day SMA, with emerging upside momentum offering some support.

Our profit target is $97 with a trailing stop-loss of $73. Exit the position on 19 April 2024.
The price is displaying upwards parallel support, and this remains of interest. Trade continues below the 200-day SMA, and we maintain our counter-trend strategy. Fading downside momentum is encouraging.

Our profit target is $369 with a trailing stop-loss of $314. Exit the position on 13 December 2023.
Stability in the price with regular upswings, makes the stock attractive. The stock remains below its 200-day SMA but remains above the 200-week SMA. Fading downside momentum, though, is supportive.

Our profit target is $19 with a trailing stop-loss of $15.30. Exit the position around 20 December 2024.

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