Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $480.00 and a stop-loss of $392.00.
Microsoft Corporation is a multinational technology company that creates platforms and tools powered by AI to deliver solutions for productivity and business processes, intelligent cloud, and personal computing segments. The company's products include the Windows operating system, cross-device productivity and collaboration applications, server applications, business solution applications, desktop and server management tools, software development tools, and video games. Microsoft also designs and sells devices, including PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and related accessories. MSFT's key products include Windows, Azure, Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn.
Technically, the volume-at-price profile for the stock presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the insert on the main chart as well). This pattern indicates that the current trading region of $417 remains close to one of the largest historical volume concentration zones observed in the past five years, ultimately supporting the bullish stance.
The price is also near the lower range of an upward sloping linear regression channel pattern, supporting the bullish bias (see the larger insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights that the broader long-term trend remains upward sloping.
Upside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.
Investors can also gain exposure to Microsoft through FNB's JSE listed ETN's, MSETNC (with rand exposure) and MSETNQ (without rand exposure).
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | MSFT |
| Industry | Software & Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 3.1 trillion |
| One Year Total Return | -8.36% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -13.49% |
| Current Price (USD) | 417.42 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 555.45 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 356.28 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| While the price is below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the recent stabilisation in price near the lower range of the linear regression channel may still provide selective bullish support. As such, the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 13.64 | 17.01 | 19.42 | 22.82 |
| Growth (%) | 24.73 | 14.14 | 17.52 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.24 | 3.70 | 4.06 | 4.35 |
| Growth (%) | 14.07 | 9.77 | 7.30 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 21.80 | 18.60 | 18.29 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.04 | |
| The company is set to deliver positive consistent earnings growth over the medium-term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | NEM - Stop loss (Close the position) |
VST - Stop loss (Close the position) |
CVX - Buy (Continue to hold) |
AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 119.69 | 152.72 | 192.64 | 307.03 |
| Current Price | 105.09 | 134.71 | 197.25 | 309.31 |
| Movement | -12.2% | -11.8% | +2.4% | +0.7% |
| Comment | The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. | The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. |
The price in a developing Elliott wave theory range remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $220.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $191.00. |
The stock is testing the lower range of an upward-sloping channel pattern, remaining of technical interest. Although still trading below its 200-day SMA as a counter-trend strategy, fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $352.00, with a trailing stop at $299.00. |
| Time to exit | 15 July 2026 | 8 July 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | ORLY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 93.92 |
| Current Price | 91.92 |
| Movement | -2.1% |
| Comment |
A price in a developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading upside momentum continues to be a concern to the trade strategy. Our profit target is $109.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $89.50 |
| Time to exit | 2 July 2026 |
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