By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R850. We recommend a stop-loss at R677.
The NewGold ETF is a Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed, physically backed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides investors with direct exposure to the rand price of gold. Each unit is fully backed by gold bullion held in secure vaults and represents a fractional ownership of gold.
The ETF does not generate income or pay dividends, with returns derived purely from capital appreciation, making it a widely used instrument for inflation hedging, currency protection and portfolio diversification. Over the past year, GLD has delivered a strong total return of ~26.8%.
Technically, the AI Forecast and Elliott wave theory with the onset of wave 5 alignment makes the ETF an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). The AI model forecasts a steady upward trend, projecting prices from about R786 toward R890 over the next six months and into 2027, supporting the base case target of R850 by mid August 2026. This outlook, generated using a Gradient Boosting Regressor, reflects sustained momentum rather than an overextended move. When combined with the expected Wave 5 advance, both quantitative and technical signals point to a constructive bullish setup over the forecast horizon.
The price action remains above the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) at R655.80, a key long term trend indicator and major support level. Holding above this level signals a structurally bullish trend, showing that buyers continue to defend pullbacks and reinforcing confidence in continued upside as long as the support holds.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | GLD |
| Industry | Resources |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 41.18 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 26.82% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 9.36% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 727.02 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 829.99 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 529.13 |
| The ETF made good progress over the past year, and several technical indicators are guiding for upside potential. | |
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | OMU SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
REM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BOX SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.85 | 181.66 | 69.99 |
| Current | 13.71 | 200.33 | 75.35 |
| Movement | -1.0% | +10.3% | +7.7% |
|
A Wave 5 progression remains in focus, with the price rebounding from the 200-day moving average and downside momentum fading.
Our profit target remains at R16.30, with a trailing stop-loss at R13.25. |
A Wave 5 remains in focus, with the price holding above the 200-day moving average and supported by positive momentum.
Our profit target remains at R204.00, with a stop-loss at R195.00. |
The price action within the Wyckoff accumulation phase remains constructive, holding above the 200-day moving average with modest upside momentum.
Our profit target remains at R79.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R73.20. |
|
| Time to exit | 29 June 2026 | 18 May 2026 | 4 May 2026 |
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