Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $352 and a stop-loss of $287.
American Express Corporation is a global financial services provider specialising in payment solutions, credit services and travel-related offerings. The company operates an integrated payments network, issuing charge and credit cards to individuals, small businesses and large corporates, while also acquiring merchants and processing transactions across its proprietary network.
AXP runs a closed-loop payments network where it directly connects cardholders and merchants without relying on third-party processors - this supports enhanced data insights, risk management and customer loyalty initiatives. The company also provides value-added services including rewards programmes, travel booking, and insurance to better serve a wide range of customers.
Technically, the price is testing the lower range of an upsloping inclining channel pattern, presenting an attractive buying opportunity (see the black parallel trendlines on the main chart). This is usually viewed as a bullish support interaction within a prevailing trend.
The price is also testing the lower one standard deviation (-1Standard Deviation) range of the linear regression channel pattern (see the insert). This representants the lower bound of the stock's statistically normal trading range within the prevailing trend and can be regarded as bullish support.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the recent uptick of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also support our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | AXP |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 1210.56 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 34.08% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -16.56% |
| Current Price (USD) | 1307.03 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 387.49 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 226.26 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). which remains supportive of a counter-trend breakout. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 15.38 | 17.57 | 20.09 | 22.81 |
| Growth (%) | 14.23 | 14.33 | 13.56 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.28 | 3.78 | 4.18 | 4.85 |
| Growth (%) | 15.37 | 10.39 | 16.04 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 17.48 | 15.29 | 13.46 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.58 | |
| The company is set to deliver positive earnings growth over the medium term with management highlighting that spending among affluent and high-net-worth consumers, its primary market, remains resilient despite fluctuating economic conditions. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | UBER - Close the position (Stop - loss) |
MFST - Close the position (Stop - loss) |
VST - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 77.79 | 389.00 | 152.72 |
| Current Price | 70.55 | 365.97 | 153.78 |
| Movement | -9.3% | -5.9% | +0.7% |
| Comment | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. |
The price in a developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading downside is supportive. Our profit target is $193 with a trailing stop-loss at $145. |
| Time to exit | 1 June 2026 |
FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.
