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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: 3M Company (MMM US) - BUY

 

Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

We enter a long position with a target price of $180 and a stop-loss of $145.

3M Company is a diversified global manufacturer, technology innovator, and marketer of a wide variety of products (including adhesives, abrasives, filtration systems, electronic materials, medical supplies and personal protective equipment). The firm develops and produces a broad range of industrial, safety, healthcare and consumer products that are used across numerous sectors of the global economy. Its operations are built around advanced materials science and engineering capabilities.

The company has operations spanning across more than 70 countries and customers in nearly every major market. 3M also boasts a highly-diversified revenue base which reduces reliance on any single industry or geographic region.

Technically, the recent volume distribution makes the stock an attractive candidate for a potential long position (see the insert on the main chart). The recent behaviour shows that selling pressure may be moderating in anticipation of a potential recovery, supportive of our bullish bias.

The developing inclining channel pattern (see the black parallel trendlines on the main chart) supports a bullish outlook because it reflects a structured and sustained upward trend. The lower boundary of the channel often provides strategic entry opportunities.

Shallow downside price momentum according to the MACD, and the sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code MMM US
Industry Capital Goods
Market Capital (USD) 81.77 billion
One Year Total Return 7.19%
Return Year-to-Date -2.59%
Current Price (USD) 155.25
52 Week High (USD) 177.41
52 Week Low (USD) 121.98
Financial Year End December
The price remains just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which also supports a bull case for the stock, highlighting long-term structural demand.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 8.06 8.67 9.42 10.08
Growth (%) 7.54 8.70 6.97
Dividend Per Share (USD) 2.92 3.13 3.33 3.36
Growth (%) 7.19 6.26 0.87
Forward PE (times) 17.91 16.48 15.40
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 2.02 2.14 2.16
The company is set to deliver positive earnings growth over the medium term with management recently highlighting that they are on track to meet or exceed its 2027 goals.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel is the Three Outside Up Japanese candlestick pattern (a reading of one indicates when such a pattern occurred). This pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal. The three-candle formation begins with a bearish candle, followed by a larger bullish second candle that fully engulfs the first, and a third bullish candle that confirms the reversal with a higher close (see the insert). This reflects a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
    • Our recommended entry range is $152 to $157, or as close as possible to $155.25. A drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $180, representing ~15.9% upside from current levels. According to forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, the share will be overbought at $230, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is mid-May 2026, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $145, or 6.6% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals, and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate price fluctuations and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $157.

Fundamental view:

    • 3M Company is divided into three key segments, namely Safety and Industrial (~45% of revenue), Transportation and Electronics (~35% of revenue) and Consumer segment (~20% of revenue).
    • The group's diversified operating model, combined with a long history of technological innovation and strong intellectual property, has positioned the company as one of the most recognised industrial conglomerates in the US.
    • 3M also continues to invest heavily in research and development, which has historically been a core driver of its product innovation and competitive advantage.
    • The group made significant progress in reshaping the operating model during FY25, building a solid foundation for sustainable growth.
    • In terms of the performance seen over FY25, the group delivered robust growth with strong margin expansion, double-digit earnings growth, and solid cash conversion.
    • Looking ahead, the accelerated pace of innovation and commercial execution positions the group to outperform the macro environment again in FY26 with ongoing operating rigor supporting further margin expansion and earnings growth. This places the company on a clear path to meet or exceed FY27 targets.
    • Management also recently emphasized a "back to basics" strategy, highlighting a significant innovation rebound with 284 new product launches and improved operational metrics.
    • From a risk perspective, 3M Company remains exposed to legal and regulatory proceedings (including polyfluoroalkyl substances [PFAS] litigation from individual states, such as Maryland and South Carolina, and international jurisdictions like the Netherlands). Tariff impacts and an unfavourable trading environment also remain a key challenge for management.

Share Name and Position BLK - Stop Loss
(Close the position)
MSFT - Buy
(Continue to hold)
AZO - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 1 073.00 389.00 3 664.84
Current Price 955.45 405.76 3 726.02
Movement -11% +4.3% +1.7%
Comment The stock has breached our stop-loss level, and we closed the position. The price is at the lower range of a linear regression channel pattern, which remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $450.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $393.00.
The emergence of a developing Wave 5 out of the Elliott wave price theory remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum regained some strength.

Our profit target is $4 060.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $3 625.00
Time to exit 13 May 2026 15 April 2026

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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