By Thanda Sithole
Mining output momentum carries over to February
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded strongly by 9.7% y/y in February, reflecting an acceleration from an upwardly revised 5.0% (previously 4.6%) expansion in January. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, increased by 2.3% m/m, following a 3.7% (originally 2.9%) increase in January. In the three months to February, seasonally-adjusted output was down by 1.7%. However, the sector should still underpin first-quarter GDP growth as March's output would have to decline sharply for the sector to drag on 1Q26 GDP.
The largest contribution to total mining output growth in February came from Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), with output increasing strongly by 52.3% y/y and contributing 9.4-percentage points (ppts), following an increase of 10.9% in January. PGMs likely ramped up production, supported by prevailing commodity prices prior to the escalation in Middle East tensions.
Outlook
Year-to-date, mining output has increased strongly by 7.3% compared to the corresponding period last year. While it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, particularly as the data pre-dates the escalation of Middle East tensions in late February, this improvement is encouraging, given that output growth was effectively flat (0.1%) in 2025.
Prior to the escalation in Middle East tensions, we expected mining activity to accelerate modestly this year, supported by prevailing commodity prices at the time. However, commodity prices have since become more volatile amid heightened global uncertainty, clouding the outlook. A faster easing of tensions would be supportive of production conditions. Importantly, easing domestic energy and logistics constraints should provide support to mining sector activity over the medium term.
Selected sector analysis
In February, seven of the twelve mining divisions recorded increased production (see Figure 1). In addition to the strong growth in PGMs, chromium ore output increased by 26.9%, contributing 1.6ppts, followed by manganese ore, which increased by 17.8% and contributed 1.5ppts, and gold output, which rose by 12.8%, adding 1.3ppts to total mining output growth.
