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Equity Insights

e.l.f. Beauty - Not on every eye, lip and face (yet)

 

By Chantal Marx

e.l.f. Beauty was founded in June 2004 by Joseph Shamah and Scott Vincent Borba in New York City, aiming to provide high-quality, vegan, cruelty-free cosmetics for as little as $1. Originally a direct-to-consumer online brand, it quickly gained popularity and expanded into major retail, later pivoting to "duping" under CEO Tarang Amin, who joined the business in 2014. Under its flagship e.l.f. brand, the company now mainly produces high-performance, superior-quality products (often imitating popular prestige products) and sells them at reasonable prices.

The mission of the company is to make the best of beauty accessible to every eye, lip and face (e.l.f.). The company's average unit selling price is ~$7.50, lower than top "mass" brands average selling price of $9.50 and prestige brands at $30. The company prides itself on its product set being community driven with direct engagement on social media being key in driving development, experimentation and innovation. The business is also dedicated to executing with speed and quality, providing it with a competitive edge over other mass beauty brands, aside from being on cheaper.

The business has also made several acquisitions over the last few years, notably Well People in 2020, Naturium in 2023, and Hailey Bieber's rhode in 2025. The latter made headlines when it was announced, with the price tag of $1 billion raising eyebrows given how young and relatively small the business was at the time of the acquisition. e.l.f. launched its own skin-care brand in 2015 and partnered with singer Alicia Keys to launch Keys Soulcare in 2020.

The approach to acquisitions has generally been careful, with continued founder involvement favoured. In this regard, e.l.f. views itself as an enabler of the founder's vision, dedicated to authenticity rather than just sweating the brand.

e.l.f. Beauty also has a strong ethical drive to deliver clean beauty products that are always vegan, cruelty-free and never tested on animals.

Not in all stores, not in all geographies (yet)

e.l.f. operates mainly in the wholesale channel, distributing its products through Target, Walmart, Ultra Beauty and Amazon in the United States (US); Shoppers in Canada; Superdrug and Boots in the United Kingdom (UK); and selected retailers elsewhere. Direct- to-consumer is online only. The company recently began selling e.l.f. brands in premium global beauty specialist retailer Sephora, who currently has an exclusive wholesales relationship with the rhode brand. The e.l.f. brands have enjoyed notable early success since it launched its products in Sephora. This new distribution partnership will also help the company expand its reach into more countries globally.

The company's main markets outside of the US are the UK and Canada but it has a small and growing presence in certain European markets and more recently Australasia and Gulf Cooperation Council countries (via Sephora). International sales make up only a fifth of e.l.f.'s sales and, with market penetration of just 20% outside of the US (versus other major brands at over 75%), presents a significant growth opportunity for the business. As an aside, management has recognised this opportunity as a function of its social media presence - International contributes 20% to sales but 74% of e.l.f.'s social media followers are outside the US.

rhode can be a game changer

In May last year, e.l.f. announced the acquisition of influencer Hailey Bieber's rhode for $1 billion. The market reaction was positive at first and then turned negative when e.l.f. management released detailed rhode financials post its 2Q26 results in September. The financials were decent but cast doubt on the hefty acquisition price. Management clarified that revenue was soft for that specific quarter as new product launches were held back in anticipation of the launch of the range in Sephora towards the end of the reporting period. The rhode launch was ultimately the biggest ever for Sephora, by a notable 2.5 times, despite only 16 stock-keeping units (SKUs) being placed at the time.

rhode is unique in that it has a limited product line and is deeply committed to its mission to produce "one of everything really great". The acquisition was immediately accretive and will be a major contributor for e.l.f. from FY27 onward. The company has sustainably high margins relative to competitors, with room for further expansion.

e.l.f. management has emphasised that with rhode it did not buy a business, but a playbook for launching niche, culturally magnetic brands. Hailey Bieber remains Chief Creative Officer and Head of Innovation for rhode, while also serving as a strategic advisor to e.l.f. Beauty.

Gen Z's beauty basket favours e.l.f.

e.l.f. is the number one beauty brand among Millennials, Gen Z's and Gen Alpha's in the markets where it operates. At its core, however, it is a Gen Z brand. Gen Z is a key focus area for e.l.f. and the beauty industry at large as they favour heavier routines (use more product), show devotion to brands, have a strong moral drive towards ethical, clean beauty and have a healthy appetite for trying new products.

In the US, e.l.f. products were found to be used by 82% of Gen Z respondents in Bloomberg Intelligence's latest beauty consumer survey. This is not surprising given the comparatively lower price point versus other mass brands, the product imitating the best of premium (that will not be affordable for Gen Z consumers), and e.l.f.'s proximity to younger consumers given its social media led marketing and engagement strategies. rhode was also noted as a heavily favoured, aspirational, brand.

Financials

  • e.l.f. Beauty boasts a very impressive growth track record having delivered 28 quarters of y/y revenue growth as of 3Q26. This includes the Covid-19 disruption that upended the broader industry in 2020. Since FY19 the company has grown revenue from $268 million to $1.3 billion in FY25 with $1.6 billion expected for the year ending 31 March 2026.
  • Growth has been largely volume driven and the company has also shown market share gains in each of the above 28 quarters of growth. Over the last five years, e.l.f. has grown unit sales volumes by 16% on a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) - well ahead of the rest of the mass market, which has broadly stalled.
  • Gross margin progression has been commendable, expanding by over ten percentage points since FY19, from 60.9% to 71.2% in FY25. It is expected that FY26 will see a slight dip to ~70.3% due to tariff and foreign exchange impacts. A recovery is anticipated medium term.
  • The adjusted EBITDA margin has been more volatile but is expected to lift in FY26 despite gross margin pressure and continued high spending on marketing (~25% of sales).

  • Debt levels have climbed post the rhode acquisition, which is expected to translate to higher finance costs. Both elevated leverage and the related interest payments are expected to subside quickly as free cash flow recovers - a function of strong revenue growth and improved profitability.

  • Similarly, the large initial capital outlay related to rhode will temporarily dampen return on invested capital (ROIC).

  • e.l.f. does not pay dividends, but it launched a $500 million share buy-back programme in August 2024, of which $433 million (~9.1% of market cap) is still outstanding.
  • Third-quarter results in February were very strong, characterised by a large, high-quality beat on profitability. In terms of sales, rhode showed exceptional growth and performances from e.l.f. Cosmetics and e.l.f. SKIN also performed very well. Cosmetics grew 8% in the US (over two times quicker than the category). SKIN grew 16% (also 2 times category growth).
  • The company raised guidance for FY26 sales from 18% to 20%, to 22% to 23%, mainly driven by rhode, which is expected to grow sales by > 70%. Perhaps of concern was 3% to 4% organic growth guidance - indicative of slower growth in the core portfolio. EBITDA growth of 9% to 10% is expected for FY26.

Investment case

  • e.l.f. boasts a market leading historic revenue growth profile that has been driven, for the most part, by volume growth. It has shown impressive market share gains with the prospect of further gains, particularly in markets outside of the US.
  • To this end, the international opportunity is significant. e.l.f.'s products are only available in select markets outside of the US, yet its brand awareness globally is substantial. The new tie-up with Sephora will help the company expand its footprint without the requirement of making and maintaining new partnerships.
  • rhode is still a business with very few SKU's but has the potential to become a powerhouse brand. The Sephora launch in September was the biggest ever for the premium beauty retailer and sales dynamic have held up well since.
  • At its core, e.l.f. is a Gen Z brand but has appeal across different age groups, with consistent customer engagement, quick response to preference/market changes, premium quality and affordable pricing distinguishing it from its mass market and premium competitors.
  • The company pushed through a notable price increase of $1 on all e.l.f. Cosmetics and SKIN products in August last year which should support revenue and margins through this year. There is still room to increase pricing as the average unit price is still comparatively low. It is not our base case that the company will meaningfully increase prices, however, as affordability remains key in terms of its core brand promise.
  • e.l.f. outsources all its manufacturing. While there are certain risks attached to this from a supply chain and quality management perspective, it allows the company to run a capital light business model where the focus is product, rather than the nuts and bolts of the production process.
  • The company also has a strong ethical and sustainability drive which appeals to a growing number of consumers demanding accountability and transparency from the brands they support. One of its core founding ethos is to produce vegan, cruelty free products, but the company continues to identify new ways to becoming a good corporate citizen. As an example, Project Unicorn, launched in 2019, committed to stripping down cluttered packaging for more sustainable options. Since then, e.l.f. has eliminated over one million pounds of excess packaging waste.

Risks

  • Key client risk is noteworthy in Wholesale with the bulk of sales being through a handful of retailers. While something to monitor, it can be argued that the relationships are mutually beneficial and in the absence of a major shake-up at one of its partners we view the likelihood of a discontinuation of e.l.f brand sales as highly unlikely.
  • The company is heavily exposed to the US market and pressure on the consumer in this country could have a negative impact on sales and growth for the business. That said, the international business is small and growing rapidly, which could cushion this somewhat. While beauty and skincare are regarded as quite defensive industries - a sharp global growth downturn will have a negative impact on sales.
  • Organic sales growth is expected to be quite tepid this year and there is a concern that the company will be required to continue making acquisitions, with associated execution risk, to maintain its historically strong growth profile.
  • Marketing expenditure as a percentage of sales has increased notably with expectations of a continued push higher in the near-to-medium term. This seems, however, to be a feature of the industry. To this end, e.l.f. spending is in line with the likes of Estee Lauder (26%) and below that of L'Oreal (32%).

  • While we like the idea of continued founder involvement when it comes to acquisitions, there is an element of "key man risk" attached to the likes of rhode, Keys Soulcare and Naturium.

Consensus considerations

Consensus is broadly positive on the stock with 71% of sell-side analysts having a BUY rating on the stock and 29% suggesting investors HOLD the stock. There are no SELL recommendations on e.l.f. The consensus 12-month target price is $111.08, suggesting 34.7% upside from current levels.

Valuation

e.l.f. beauty is trading on a forward PE of 22.8 times, more than one standard deviation below its five-year average rating and in line with peers where it has historically traded at an average 25% premium.

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