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WeBuyCars - Listing on the JSE in April

 

WeBuyCars - Listing on the JSE in April

WeBuyCars (WBC) is one of the largest used-vehicle dealers in South Africa. From humble beginnings with founders Faan and Dirk van der Walt physically buying and selling cars, the company has grown substantially over the last two decades. Currently backed by 15 vehicle supermarkets, 74 buying pods, over 2 800 employees as well as ~345 professional buyers, WBC now moves in excess of 13 000 vehicles (predominantly nine years or older) through its operations per month. The company's offering includes passenger and commercial vehicles, motorcycles, trailers, caravans, and even boats.

In addition to its strong physical presence across all nine provinces (with major locations such as the Dome), the company boasts an impressive online platform, attracting roughly 58 000 visitors per day. Through this platform, individuals can request quotes on their vehicles, view (and purchase) any inventory for sale, and even partake in live auctions. These services are extended to business customers as well as other used-vehicle dealers.

Some other key offerings include finance, insurance, and vehicle tracking services, underpinned by strategic partnerships with major banks, OUTsurance, and Netstar. WBC's most notable affiliation is with Dekra, which conducts detailed inspections to determine vehicle roadworthiness in accordance with legal requirements. Through these ancillary offerings, the company can provide a more comprehensive service to the used-vehicle market.

Strategy

Improving 'more of the same' - driving the current offering

WBC has gained a reputation as an expert buyer of used vehicles. The company utilises its proprietary technology and valuation tools (incorporating big data, machine learning, and AI) to determine a fair and objective acquisition price. Together with its buying-staff expertise, it can provide reasonable quotes to sellers (in short turnaround times), which are often converted into fulfilled sales. This technology is also used to accurately price its inventory, maintaining optimal margins and efficient churn. A key feature of its data driven technology is that vehicle valuations are not necessarily static but are able to adapt to changing market fundamentals in real time.

The company has no affiliation with any individual OEMs, brands, or customers, and has no direct exposure to the import market (hence no exchange rate exposure) nor the vehicle supply chain - WeBuyCars does not sell any brand-new vehicles, neither does it engage in any maintenance or repairs of its existing fleet.

Adding to its service appeal, WBC is directly integrated with the SA road traffic management corporation (RTMC) enabling a more convenient and seamless administrative process. This ensures better record maintenance and compliance from the company's perspective, and also enables a smoother customer experience in terms of vehicle registration and change of ownership.

Expanding the product offering

With its finance offering, although the company has seen a rapid uptick in sales and improved profitability over the past three years, there is still scope for growth. Despite the high interest-rate environment, credit uptake among strained consumers (particularly for big-ticket purchases such as cars) has been reasonable. Improved borrowing terms (i.e., lower interest rates) in the next 12 to 24 months could lead to further growth in this regard, and the company is well positioned to take advantage of this.

A particular focus has also been placed on customer retention and repeat sales, with new product channels also under consideration.

In terms of its technology usage there is still room for improvement. For example, the software could be used to identify certain secondhand brands or models that are highest in demand and the company could execute its strategy accordingly. Continuous development of its tools is also an important factor, particularly in maintaining an edge over its largest competitors.

Physical Expansion

The company's largest asset is its collection of physical supermarkets in major regions across the country, which have a combined capacity of over 10 000 vehicles. Management plans to expand the company's footprint by adding further capacity of ~2 000 vehicles between FY25/26. Key to this strategy will be identifying suitable locations that can accommodate large foot-traffic, but where the market is still relatively untapped. These plans for growth are consistent with the company's targets of achieving ~23% market share and selling around 22 000 vehicles per month by FY28.

Management

WBC was founded in 2001 by brothers Faan and Dirk van der Walt. Faan remains at the helm of the operation, conducting his duties as chief executive officer (CEO). He has over 24 years' experience in the automobile industry and is a significant minority shareholder of the company. Dirk is an executive director and also a minority shareholder.

Along with its expansion over the years, the company's management structure has grown substantially. The team currently comprises:

  • Chief financial officer (CFO): Chris Rein - CA(SA) with over 15 years' automotive experience. Rein has held various senior positions at McCarthy over an eight-year period and has extensive experience as a CFO.
  • Chief digital officer: Wynand Beukes - holds a PhD in Informatics and has over 20 years' experience in IT.
  • Chief marketing/HR officer: Rikus Blomerus - holds an MBA and has previous experience as regional HR manager at Shoprite Group.
  • Chief strategy officer: Willem Klopper - CA(SA) with more than 11 years' experience in capital allocation and investments.

The rest of the team includes John Mills (operations director), Bernadette Cohn (group financial manager), Janson Ponting (sales director), Richard Webber (general manager - buying), Sean Sevell (head of admin and risk) and Christiaan Steyn (head of product).

Sector considerations and competitive landscape

Used vehicles

Although new-vehicle sales in South Africa remain under pressure, the parc (consisting of both passenger and light commercial vehicles) continues to grow.

Approximately 150 000 used vehicles are registered monthly, and WBC sells around 10% to 12% of these. Market share gains have been rapid, and this is not only due to consolidation within the sector and smaller players being forced out of business, but also a notable reduction in private sellers. These individuals are instead making use of trusted platforms such as WBC (or similar aggregators) to sell their vehicles safely and conveniently, at decent prices.

Listed competitors

Locally, there are a few major companies operating in the used vehicle market, including Motus (MTH), Combined Motor Holdings (CMH) and Super Group (SPG). WBC, however, does not see these as direct competitors because they each have varying business models - including sales of new vehicles (imports and exports), long- and short-term rentals as well as after-sales maintenance and repair services. Super Group also operates in the logistics and supply-chain industries, further impacting comparability.

This is clear to see once we put some numbers into perspective:

Recently, we've also seen the likes of Weelee and Sell My Car Quick emerge onto the local landscape. Both companies serve as direct competitors to WBC. As management has noted - not all emerging competitors survive (CarTzar and Carzuka being recent examples) and heightened activity in the space is not necessarily a negative. A good example of this is the recent opening of a Weelee showroom adjacent to WBC's Midrand location that resulted in an increase in foot traffic at the WBC vehicle supermarket.

International players

The closest players to WBC internationally are Carmax and WeBuyAnyCar:

  • Carmax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the US, pushing volumes of over 800 000 per year. The company generates revenue of ~$30 billion (R560 billion), of which ~80% is accounted for by sales across the used-vehicle segment. Underpinned by ~40 superstores in 110 regions, as well as an online platform, Carmax has disrupted the used vehicle market in the US.
  • WeBuyAnyCar (part of the Constellation Automotive Group) is a UK-based car buying service with an almost identical business model to WBC and Carmax.
  • Some of the smaller names in the international market are Vroom (US) and Cazoo (Europe). Manheim, Auto Trader and Auto1 Group are not vehicle retailers per se, but instead operate online marketplaces to facilitate vehicle transactions between customers and dealers (and earn commission income on completed sales). These companies don't engage in any buying activity and hence have no inventory for sale.

Financials

  • In FY23, WBC generated revenue of ~R20 billion (+12% y/y). EBITDA (-3%), operating profit (-7%) and core net profit after tax (-13%), however, all declined. This was a difficult year for the company, with sales coming off an exceptionally high base in 2022, which was underpinned by lower new vehicle inventories due to a chip-shortage emanating from the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Cash generation was strong with net cash from operations improving to an inflow of R596 million (FY22: outflow of R83 million).
  • We expect continued strong growth in revenue over our three-year forecast horizon based on market growth, market share gains, relief on the consumer because of lower inflation and interest rates, and growth in used vehicle prices. We conservatively estimate stable margins over the next few years, although there is upside risk to this assumption due to likely economies of scale emanating from continued growth. Cash generation is anticipated to remain strong.
  • The balance sheet is conservatively geared. The company has ~R700 million in asset-backed debt, against its R1.1 billion property portfolio, as well as a R300 million revolving loan facility against inventory (~R2.2 billion).
  • WBC also has strong liquidity considering an improved current ratio of 2.83 (FY22: 1.9). The cash conversion cycle, however, has increased to 30 days (FY22: 25 days) due to an uptick in the number of days of inventory on hand.
  • The company has targeted a dividend payout ratio of between 25% and 33%, with the balance of earnings to be ploughed back into the business to fund future growth.

What we like about this company

  • The used vehicle market in South Africa is a lot more defensive than the new vehicle segment. In fact, South Africa's vehicle "parc" is growing despite a reduction in new vehicle sales.
  • Additionally, used vehicle dealers are agnostic to imports and currency volatility - eliminating another cyclical component relative to local listed peers (Motus and CMH operate across the vehicle value chain - imports, distribution, new vehicles, used vehicles, aftermarket parts).
  • WBC's market share is estimated at 10% to 12% and it is targeting a 23% share by FY28. This means that it must increase the number of vehicles sold monthly from 14 000 to 22 000. We think this is an achievable target and would mean continued rapid growth in revenue in the next four or five years.

  • There is still extensive growth available in the financed sale space. Most of WBC consumer sales are affected by cash but, by the company's own admission, this cash is often sourced from third party financiers and may have been extended at very high interest rates. There is an opportunity to finance in this space - particularly when finance is not forthcoming because of the vehicle being older and not the consumer being unable to qualify for financing.
  • The company's digital real estate is regarded as a key competitive advantage. The technology is proprietary, easily scalable, and provides extremely valuable insights via data collected. This allows the company to be very precise in managing inventory, generating sales leads, and protecting customers.
  • WBC has substantial brand recognition in an area of the market that has historically been marred by a "trust deficit" with consumers.
  • The company is not looking to expand out of South African for the time being - we view this as a risk mitigator for the time being.
  • No further capital raise is anticipated post the listing.

What we don't like about this company

  • From a macroeconomic point of view, WBC is heavily exposed to cyclical downturns as well as the interest rate environment. Periods of severe economic distress could have an adverse impact on demand and sales.
  • There is high execution risk in terms of managements' aggressive expansion strategy not materialising.
  • Consumers have grown increasingly wary about the condition and quality of vehicles being sold. There have been numerous complaints about mechanical and electrical issues arising after sales have been completed, as well as associated Dekra reports not being entirely fair. Another major concern has been the company's after-sales service, with a considerable number of consumers left unsatisfied after purchasing their vehicles.
  • Competition in South Africa tends to pick up from time to time. There is significant risk that one of the emerging competitors gains meaningful traction. Carzuka (a subsidiary of Karooooo) was once seen as a major competitor but the company has since ceased its operations. Currently, Wheelee has been doing well, albeit with a minimal impact on WBC's sales.

Valuation

  • WBC views Carmax in the US and Webuyanycar.com in the UK as following business models most like itself. Carmax trades on a forward PE of 20 times (compared to CMH and Motus trading on forward PEs in the mid-single digits). Webuyanycar.com was taken private recently on a price to sales ratio of 1.9 times - this is exceptionally lofty compared to Carmax' 0.4 times.
  • We think that WBC will command a higher valuation than the locally listed car retailers because of its strong growth profile and focus on the used vehicle market, and lack of exposure to interest rate risk and distribution. As such, we attach an exit PE on the business of between 12 and 15 times with our models at the more conservative end.
  • We use a variety of valuation techniques to calculate a fair value range upon listing of R10 billion. This is towards the upper end of management's provided R8.7 billion to R10 billion range.

How to gain exposure

  • Buy Transaction Capital (TCP) shares in the market and receive WBC in the unbundling. Investors will still be left with TCP shares that they can either sell in the market or hold. We have written a separate piece on what remains in TCP post unbundling that will be published on the FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management website and the FNB Investment Insights Portal.
  • Wait for the listing and buy WBC shares in the market.
  • Apply to participate in the R750 million private placement.

To apply to participate in the private placement:

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (SPM) - Log onto shares.fnb.co.za. Navigate to MyAccount>Corporate Actions> Electives. Please indicate the number of shares/rand amount you would like to invest.

FNB Share Investing (SI) and Shares Zero - Send an email to shareinvesting@fnb.co.za. Please indicate your account number and rand amount you would like to invest.

The application period is very short. Applications will close on Monday 18 March at 17:00, but is subject to book builder discretion. Allocations are also subject to book builder discretion. Minimum application is R10 000.

Appendix - Background to the listing

On 13 March 2023, TCP released an extremely disappointing trading update highlighting a sharp deterioration in SA Taxi's profitability and an imminent restructuring of that business. This, along with other subsequent events, triggered a massive decline in TCP's share price from R28 at the time to a low of R3.99 in September last year.

Management opted to act, looking for ways to unlock value for shareholders while simultaneously focusing on TCP's balance sheet and the restructuring of the SA Taxi business.

On 30 January this year, TCP announced that they would unbundle “crown jewel” WeBuyCars (WBC) to shareholders, with an accompanying listing on the JSE. At the time, TCP owned 74.9% of WBC and the founders held the balance.

Prior to the listing, several steps have been, and will be, undertaken:

  • In February, WBC declared several distributions to its shareholders at the time (being TCP and the founders). This included an ordinary dividend of R190 million, a cash dividend of R750 million, and a scrip divided of R2.3 billion (with a cash election alternative).
  • WBC will issue shares to the value of ~R760 million to Coronation Fund Managers, implying a valuation of R7.5 billion for WeBuyCars.
  • A private placement of WBC shares to the value of R500 million - with the sellers being TCP and the founders, also at an implied valuation of R7.5 billion.
  • WBC will raise capital of R750 million (to settle the cash dividend declared in February).

Finally, TCP will unbundle WBC shares to its shareholders in the ratio of ~0.30241 shares for every TCP share held.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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