Economics Weekly
Inflation pressure eases, but the road to 3% will be gradual and bumpy
Consumer inflation improved sharply in July, but the broader economy continues to send mixed signals. Headline consumer inflation eased to 4.3% year-on-year (y/y) in July from 5.0% in June, marking its first moderation in five months. Monthly inflation was 0.2%, supported by softer food inflation, lower fuel prices, and smaller municipal tariff increases.
22 August 2026
Economics Weekly
SARB pauses, but the fight for 3% inflation is far from over
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo rate unchanged at 7.00% at its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, following the 25-basis point (bp) increase delivered in May. The decision came as a surprise, with both our expectation and broader market consensus anticipating a further 25bps increase.
24 July 2026
Economics Weekly
Outlook update: Near-term pressures, but medium-term prospects remain constructive
10 July 2026
Economics Weekly
Property market tells a story of improving SA dynamics
Our assessment of the residential property market over the first five months of 2026 has centred on resilience. We initially expected the positive sentiment towards South Africa (SA), which supported demand from wealthier households and foreign participants in 2025, to be reinforced by easier financial conditions. This would strengthen demand across both higher- and lower-value segments, supporting firmer mortgage activity and renewed house price growth into 2027. Although the war in the Middle East has added to affordability pressures and may increasingly weigh on transaction volumes, this has so far been offset by continued upward revisions to our house price growth estimates. As these value effects remain evident, we highlight a few trends that support our expectation of continued near-term resilience.
19 June 2026
Economics Weekly
SA bleeds jobs at the start of 2026, the pressure could persist
South Africa (SA) shed 344 626 jobs in 1Q26, reversing total employment back to 16 754 282, and leaving it marginally below 1Q25 levels. The unemployment rate rose to 32.7% (from 32.4% in 4Q25), while the expanded rate increased to 43.7%, reflecting a continued rise in discouraged work-seekers. Job losses were broad-based across formal, informal and household sectors, signalling widespread pressure rather than isolated weakness. At the same time, the number of people outside the labour force (i.e., those economically inactive, including discouraged individuals) continued to rise, reflecting further erosion in productive capacity. Ultimately, the rapid deterioration in labour market conditions and sustained slack raises concerns about the near-term outlook amid the ongoing energy shock.
15 May 2026
Economics Weekly
SARB signals cautious flexibility amid a large supply shock from the Middle East war
08 May 2026
Economics weekly
A hold during the storm
The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.75% at its March meeting, as expected amid the recent war in the Middle East. Unfortunately, the news flow around the war remains discouraging. While talks of a ceasefire have intermittently led to some oil price retreat, the language around the war remains concerningly escalatory and should sustain volatility. The MPC's messaging highlights the uncertain operating environment, but the central bank is resolute on its inflation objective and could raise rates if the supply shock does not abate.
27 March 2026
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