Economics weekly
What the 4Q24 Quarterly Bulletin tells us about the consumer
The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) 4Q24 Quarterly Bulletin, released on 27 March, provides fresh insights into consumer finances. In this piece, we unpack key trends in household balance sheets, highlighting improving real wages, cautious debt management, and rising net wealth.
28 March 2025
Economics Weekly
2025 Budget Review: Balancing fiscal discipline and economic growth
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has delivered his first budget under a multi-party Government of National Unity (GNU) amid global uncertainty and trade tensions. The budget prioritises fiscal consolidation while investing in infrastructure and supporting vulnerable households.
12 March 2025
Economics weekly
Budget 2025 postponement and key highlights
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was scheduled to table the 2025 Budget on 19 February-the first under the Government of National Unity. However, in an unprecedented eleventh-hour announcement, the budget was postponed to 12 March. The delay appears to centre on discussions regarding a potential VAT rate increase from 15% to 17%.
21 February 2025
Economics Weekly
2025 Budget preview: Balancing fiscal consolidation and growth priorities
14 February 2025
Economics Weekly
Consumer credit trends in 3Q24: A mixed outlook for borrowers
The South African consumer credit market experienced moderate growth in 3Q24 (2.8% q/q), reflecting a mix of resilient demand and persistent financial strain. While this represents a slowdown from the 5.5% growth in Q2, it signals a potential cyclical turning point in credit supply, with a 1.0% y/y increase compared to a 1.6% contraction in 2Q24. That said, lenders remained cautious, as shown by high credit rejection rates (67.6%, down slightly from 68.0% in Q2). In this piece, we analyse the latest National Credit Regulator data.
07 February 2025
Economics Weekly
Multiple risks abound but sticking to fundamentals should usher in another cut
24 January 2025
Flash Notes
November retail sales exceed expectations
After a solid 6.2% y/y in October, retail sales accelerated further to a robust 7.7% growth in November, significantly outpacing the Reuters consensus expectation for a 5.5% increase. Excluding the disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the July 2021 riots to the data, this marks the strongest print in approximately 14 years (since June 2010).
22 January 2025
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