By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position with a target price of R99.00 and recommend a stop-loss at R82.00.
OUTsurance Group is an investment holding company that holds a diversified portfolio of strategic investments in some of South Africa's premier insurance and finance brands, including a 90% stake in OUTsurance Holdings - one of South Africa's leading short-term and life insurance providers, offering innovative personal, business, and health insurance products through a direct-to-consumer model. Known for its customer-centric approach and features like the popular OUTbonus reward for claim-free clients, the group leverages technology and data analytics to deliver competitive premiums and efficient service.
The business also operates internationally through Youi in Australia and OUTsurance Ireland, which launched in 2024, positioning it as a trusted and growing presence in global insurance markets.
Technically, the developing Wave 5 structure under Elliott Wave theory makes the share an interesting long candidate, as it suggests the potential for a final advance within the broader uptrend following the completion of Wave 4 (see number notation on the main chart). If the wave count is correct, the price could continue towards or above the Wave 3-high, supporting further upside potential.
The AI model forecast supports the trade idea by projecting a constructive upward price trajectory over the medium-to-longer term. While the forecast remains within normal volatility ranges in the near term, it points to progressively higher price levels over the three-, six- and 12-month horizons, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Although the projections are estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes, the model's positive bias provides additional support.
The share remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R74.33, reinforcing the positive long term trend and suggesting that the moving average continues to act as an important area of support. As long as the price holds above this level, the broader technical outlook remains constructive and supports the bullish trade thesis.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | OUT |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 135.6 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 26.39% |
| Return Year-to-date | 28.75% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 87.56 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 90.04 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 64.88 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| OUTsurance's share price has outperformed year-to-date, supported by strong momentum through the second half of the year and trading near its 52-week high. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings Per Share (ZAR) | 3.62 | 4.18 | 4.84 | 5.45 |
| Growth (%) | 15.36 | 15.78 | 12.78 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 4.09 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 4.26 |
| Growth (%) | -20.69 | 15.58 | 13.58 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 19.90 | 17.36 | 16.06 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.71 | 4.29 | 4.87 | |
| Strong double-digit earnings growth is expected over the forecast period, while the share trades on a premium valuation. Upside potential is expected to be supported by continued customer growth across its South African and Australian operations, disciplined pricing, and increasing scale benefits from its direct-insurance model. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 31.88 | 32.50 | +1.9% | The price action near the high-volume zone remains strong, currently trading above the 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade idea. We retain R37.50 as the profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R30.60. | 4 January 2027 |
| WBO SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 145.00 | 150.00 | +3.4% | The price action that seems to be bouncing off the lower range of an upward sloping linear regression remains of interest. Below its 200-day SMA, this counter-trend trade gains support from emerging upside momentum. We retain R167.00 as the profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R145.00. | 18 January 2027 |
| QLT SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 38.74 | 41.02 | +5.9% | The price action follows an upward-sloping linear regression channel. Having crossed above its 200-day SMA, fading downside momentum supports the trade idea. We retain R44.00 as the profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R40.00. | 30 November 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 877.50 | 1021.13 | +16.4% | A developing-top pattern remains of interest, with price above its 200-day SMA; upside momentum supports the trade idea. The price target remains at R1 060.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R992.00. | 30 November 2026 |
| CLH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 4.50 | 4.39 | -2.4% | The price symmetry and improving momentum remain of interest as the share continues testing its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade idea. We retain R5.12 as the profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R4.25. | 11 January 2027 |
| LHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 11.76 | 12.59 | +7.1% | The position is approaching its time exit and remains above its 200-day SMA. However, upside momentum has stalled, concerning the trade idea. We retain R13.35 as target, with a trailing stop-loss at R12.30. | 9 November 2026 |
This trade idea can be actioned through FNB Local Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
