By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $322 and a stop-loss of $239.
Texas Instruments is a global semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and sells analogue and embedded processing chips for several markets, including industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, and enterprise systems.
The group's business model is supported by a broad and diversified customer base, long product life cycles and substantial control over its manufacturing operations. The company maintains a particularly significant production footprint in the United States (US), with major 300-millimetre semiconductor wafer facilities in Richardson and Sherman, Texas, as well as Lehi, Utah.
Technically, the price at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, makes the stock an attractive buying opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). The pattern provides conditional bullish support with the price likely to rebound from this area given that the broader upward structure remains intact.
The Elliott Wave interpretation suggests that the price may be progressing through a five-wave bullish sequence (see the number notation one to five on the main chart) with waves one and three represent advancing phases, while waves two and four are corrective pullbacks within the broader upward trend.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram supports our bullish view, while the recent steep downward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator is a concern.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | TXN |
| Industry | Semiconductor |
| Market Capital (USD) | 240.6 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 52.13% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 54.41% |
| Current Price (USD) | 263.43 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 334.03 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 152.73 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) indicating that the longer-term trend remains positive and that buyers retain broader technical control. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 5.91 | 8.51 | 10.50 | 12.76 |
| Growth (%) | 44.05 | 23.30 | 21.59 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 5.50 | 5.73 | 5.93 | 6.17 |
| Growth (%) | 4.13 | 3.54 | 4.01 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 26.56 | 21.77 | 20.64 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.17 | 2.25 | 2.34 | |
| The company is set to deliver a strong double-digit earnings recovery in the current financial year and maintain the positive momentum over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DD - (Close position) | 140.77 | 126.99 | -9.8% | Stock has hit our stop-loss. Exit trade | |
| Gild - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.77 | 146.41 | +7.8% | The AI model's forecast targeted levels remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $155.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$142.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| VST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 139.03 | 140.73 | +1.2% | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains just below its 200-day SMA. The start of downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $176.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $133.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| PEP - Buy (Continue to hold) | 140.13 | 136.34 | -2.7% | The seasonal profile for the stock remains of interest. Remains below 200-day SMA. The start of downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $158.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $133.00. | 11 November 2026 |
| DOW - Buy (Continue to hold) | 30.46 | 28.90 | -5.1% | The price at a historical trading zone remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $38.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $28.00. | 9 December 2026 |
| ORCL - Buy (Continue to hold) | 162.52 | 144.79 | -10.9% | The price at the lower range of the inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-week SMA. Upside momentum halted which is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $212.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $143.00. | 9 December 2026 |
