By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R49.80. We recommend a stop-loss at R40.80.
Coronation Fund Managers is one of southern Africa's most successful third-party fund management companies. It is a pure fund management business that offers both individual and institutional investors access to local and global expertise across all asset classes, including specialist Global Emerging Markets, Africa and Private Equity units. Coronation's product offerings include unit trusts, institutional mandates, and retirement funds.
Coronation is a well-established asset manager and has built a trusted brand over time. The company boasts a strong balance sheet and good profitability metrics with outflows seeing solid improvement recently. If the market performs well, the company should perform well. Overall, we like the company and maintain a positive outlook regarding long-term growth prospects.
The Elliott Wave structure supports a bullish outlook, with the share appearing to have completed its corrective fourth wave and now showing signs that wave 5 may be developing (see the number notation on the main chart). As the final advancing phase of the broader uptrend, wave 5 is often associated with renewed buying interest and positive momentum. Provided the recent recovery continues and key support levels hold, the current wave structure suggests the potential for further upside.
The breakout above a falling wedge pattern supports a bullish outlook for the share. The narrowing wedge structure suggests that selling pressure was gradually weakening, and the recent move above the upper trendline indicates that buyers may be regaining control. Provided the share remains above the breakout level and continues to form higher lows, the pattern points to the potential for further upside, although a move back into the wedge would weaken the bullish case.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R43.80.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | CML |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 16.69 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 10.28% |
| Return Year-to-date | -2.98% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 43.11 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 52.30 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 38.58 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The share price has declined 8.9% from its January peak but has staged a modest recovery from its June lows. Several technical indicators suggest further upside potential. | |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 4.74 | 4.76 | 4.84 | 5.18 |
| Growth (%) | 0.36 | 1.68 | 7.02 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 4.54 | 4.52 | 4.60 | 4.92 |
| Growth (%) | -0.44 | 1.77 | 6.96 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 9.06 | 8.91 | 8.32 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 10.48 | 10.67 | 11.41 | |
| Modest earnings growth is expected over the forecast period, with the share offering an attractive dividend yield while trading on an undemanding valuation. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis
Fundamental view
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRP SA - Time exit | 142.42 | 151.47 | +6.4% | The share reached its time exit, prompting us to close the position. Fading upside momentum further supports the decision to exit. | 17 August 2026 |
| SSW SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.49 | 47.52 | +9.3% | A breakout from a falling wedge remains encouraging. The share trades just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), while upside momentum supports the trade. We retain our R56.80 target, R38.50 initial stop-loss and R45.00 trailing stop-loss. | 12 October 2026 |
| DSY SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 262.16 | 252.86 | -3.5% | A series of green Heikin-Ashi candles remains encouraging. However, the price has fallen below its 200-day SMA, while downside momentum poses a risk. We retain our R299.00 target, R233.00 initial stop-loss and R246.00 trailing stop-loss. | 9 November 2026 |
| HAR SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 268.22 | 350.28 | +30.6% | Price action near the lower boundary of a rising linear regression channel remains encouraging. The share remains above its 200-day SMA, with strong upside momentum supporting the trade. We retain our R355.00 target, R233.00 initial stop-loss and R327.00 trailing stop-loss. | 5 October 2026 |
| INL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.08 | 136.86 | +1.3% | A developing ascending triangle remains encouraging, while the share trades above its 200-day SMA. However, stalled upside momentum raises concern. We retain our R153.00 target, R128.00 initial stop-loss and R133.00 trailing stop-loss. | 21 September 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 83.96 | -3.3% | The price action appears to be entering Wave B under Elliott Wave theory, which remains of interest. However, the share trades below its 200-day SMA, with downside momentum posing a risk. We retain our R98.00 target and R82.00 stop-loss. | 27 September 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 908.93 | -7.0% | A gross dividend of R13.37923 will trade ex-dividend on 30 September 2026. A developing bullish pennant and the price above the 200-day SMA remain encouraging, although sudden downside momentum raises concern. We retain our R1 202.00 target, R885.00 initial stop-loss and R877.00 trailing stop-loss. | 4 November 2026 |
