By Peet Serfontein, Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R345. We recommend a stop-loss at R288.
Tiger Brands is a branded fast-moving consumer packaged goods company that operates mainly in South Africa and selected emerging markets. The core business is the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of everyday branded food and beverages. Many brands under its umbrella, including All Gold, Koo, Albany and Tastic enjoy market leader status in South Africa.
Technically, the price suggests the stock may be entering the early stages of wave 5 in Elliott Wave Theory, supporting a bullish outlook (see the number notation on the main chart). As the final impulsive phase of an uptrend, wave 5 is typically driven by renewed buying interest and positive sentiment, with potential for further upside and new highs.
The De-trended Price Oscillator (DPO) indicator also supports the bullish outlook, having recently rebounded from deeply oversold levels that suggested selling pressure was becoming exhausted. While still below neutral, the improvement indicates fading downside momentum and the early stages of a potential cyclical recovery, historically a precursor to stabilisation and renewed price strength.
The share is approaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R305.03 from below, a level that typically acts as key resistance. A decisive break and sustained move above this level would signal an improvement in longer-term sentiment and strengthen the bullish outlook, while failure to do so would leave the trend less certain.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | TBS |
| Industry | Food, Beverage & Tobacco |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 50 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 8.20% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -10.50% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 293.65 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 358.00 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 267.22 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The share has experienced significant losses year-to-date, declining by ~10.5%, reflecting sustained selling pressure and a lack of durable recovery momentum over the period. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 21.12 | 21.56 | 23.48 | 25.68 |
| Growth (%) | 2.09 | 8.90 | 9.37 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 16.44 | 16.91 | 18.86 | 20.60 |
| Growth (%) | 2.83 | 11.56 | 9.23 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 12.79 | 11.71 | 11.43 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.76 | 6.42 | 7.02 | |
| Consensus expectations point to steady earnings and dividend growth, with HEPS and payouts increasing gradually while valuation remains reasonable, supported by moderating forward PE multiples and an improving dividend yield. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | SPG - Buy (Continue to hold) |
NRP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BTI - Buy (Continue to hold) |
IMP - Stop loss (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 17.29 | 142.42 | 976.99 | 228.00 |
| Current Price | 18.93 | 144.93 | 943.00 | 200.68 |
| Movement | +9.5% | +1.8% | -3.5% | -12.0% |
| Comment |
Symmetrical triangle consolidation remains in play. Above 200-day SMA supports trend bias; improving upside momentum suggests breakout potential. Target: R20.40 | Trailing stop: R18.25 |
Ascending triangle supports constructive outlook. Break above 200-day SMA with strengthening upside momentum. Target: R160.00 | Trailing stop: R141.00 |
Bullish pennant intact but testing 200-day SMA. Emerging downside momentum is a near-term concern. Target: R1 202.00 | Trailing stop: R899.00 |
Position closed after stop-loss was triggered. |
| Time to exit | 17 August 2026 | 17 August 2026 | 04 November 2026 | 14 September 2026 |
