Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $591.00 and a stop-loss of $396.00.
Axon Enterprise is a public safety technology company that offers law enforcement, military, and self-defence solutions, serving customers worldwide. The company is best known for developing and selling conducted energy weapons under the TASER brand as well as an integrated suite of hardware and cloud-based software solutions.
The company also offers AXON wearable video cameras for law enforcement officers and a hosted product called Evidence.com that allows digital evidence to be viewed, shared, and managed from a Web browser.
Technically, the supportive AI-driven price forecasts present an attractive buying opportunity for the stock (see the second insert on the main chart). This pattern is constructed using a machine-learning framework that analyses several years of historical price data together with a range of technical variables. Additionally, the target price is positioned below the model's six-month forecast, implying that it does not require an overly optimistic scenario to be achieved.
The price is also near the lower range of an upward sloping linear regression channel pattern, which supports our bullish bias (see the larger insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights that the broader long-term trend remains upward sloping, reflecting sustained positive price progression over time.
Upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | AXON US |
| Industry | Capital Goods |
| Market Capital (USD) | 36.5 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -40.67% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -20.32% |
| Current Price (USD) | 452.51 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 885.92 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 339.01 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but above its 200-week SMA, suggesting that the longer-term bullish trend remains intact. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 6.85 | 7.73 | 10.66 | 14.05 |
| Growth (%) | 12.79 | 37.92 | 31.84 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | - | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | |
| Forward PE (times) | 50.18 | 37.24 | 32.21 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | - | - | |
| The company is set to deliver robust double-digit earnings growth over the medium term, driven by strong demand across its ecosystem of product offerings, with continued investment in innovation supporting a healthy long-term growth pipeline. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VMC - Buy (Continue to hold) |
UBER - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MSFT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 307.03 | 268.94 | 72.33 | 417.42 |
| Current Price | 318.38 | 279.00 | 70.38 | 403.41 |
| Movement | +3.7% | +3.7% | -2.7% | -3.7% |
| Comment | The stock is testing the lower range of an upward-sloping channel pattern, remaining of technical interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. The start of upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $352.00, with a trailing stop at $287.00. | Supportive long-term trend dynamics, improving momentum and favourable mean-reversion characteristics remain of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $314.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$269.00. | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel and the development of a double-bottom pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is $85.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $68.00. | The volume-at-price profile remains of interest. The stock dipped below its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is $480.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $392.00. |
| Time to exit | 8 July 2026 | 19 August 2026 | 11 August 2026 | 12 August 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | CVX - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 192.64 | |||
| Current Price | 186.76 | |||
| Movement | -3.1% | |||
| Comment | The price in a developing Elliott wave structure remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is $220.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $181.00. | |||
| Time to exit | 15 July 2026 |
