Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R20.40. We recommend a stop-loss at R16.00.
Super Group is a broad-based supply-chain management business. The supply-chain division provides a platform for the group's core expertise and offerings. The business is made up of vertically-integrated divisions covering vehicle dealerships and fleet management. Apart from South Africa, the group also has operations in the Rest of Africa and the United Kingdom.
Technically, a developing symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a constructive setup, with the share consolidating after a prior advance and indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend (see the first insert on the main chart). The narrowing range reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, while consistent support at the lower trendline signals ongoing accumulation. A confirmed breakout above resistance could trigger renewed bullish momentum, with the pattern's measured move supporting an upside target near the 2 600 level, provided key support holds.
The De-trended Price Oscillator (DPO) indicator supports a cautiously bullish outlook, having recently rebounded from extreme oversold levels that suggested downside exhaustion. This recovery indicates fading selling pressure and the early stages of a potential cyclical improvement, with momentum gradually stabilising and creating conditions for possible further upside.
The price action remains close to its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggesting that longer-term buying interest may still be present despite recent market fluctuations.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SPG SJ |
| Industry | Industrial Transportation |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 6 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 36.34% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -6.08% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 1 776.00 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 2 098.00 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 1 202.00 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| While the share price remains under pressure and is down 6.5% year-to-date, several technical indicators are suggesting that a breakout towards the upside is likely to occur. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings Per Share (ZAR) | 2.40 | 3.28 | 3.76 | 4.11 |
| Growth (%) | 36.91 | 14.44 | 9.40 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 16.30 | 0.78 | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Growth (%) | -95.21 | 15.51 | 25.19 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 4.76 | 4.34 | 4.32 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.39 | 5.07 | 6.35 | |
| Consensus expectations suggest strong near-term earnings growth followed by a moderation to more sustainable levels, while dividends are expected to grow steadily following the special dividend declared in FY25. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | IMP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 228.00 | 142.42 | 976.99 | |
| Current Price | 200.68 | 137.90 | 966.60 | |
| Movement | -12.0% | -3.2% | -1.1% | |
| Comment |
The tendency for seasonal weakness to give way to stronger returns in the months ahead remains of interest. However, the share has declined aggressively below its 200-day SMA, with downside momentum beginning to strengthen. We maintain a target of R340.00, with a trailing stop loss at R183.00. |
The price action within a developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest and is currently testing its 200-day SMA. Emerging downside momentum is a concern. We maintain a target of R160.00, with a trailing stop loss at R135.00. |
The developing bullish pennant remains constructive, with the share trading just above its 200-day SMA. However, fading upside momentum remains a concern. We maintain a target of R1 202.00, with a trailing stop loss at R921.00. |
|
| Time to exit | 14 September 2026 | 17 August 2026 | 4 November 2026 |
