Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of R160.00 and a stop-loss of R135.00.
NEPI Rockcastle is the largest owner, operator, and developer of shopping centres in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with a portfolio valued at €8.2 billion across 60 properties in eight countries. The company is one of the largest listed property companies available to South African investors through the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
The group's high-quality portfolio of directly held properties in the CEE region, combined with exposure to select listed and liquid global real estate securities, diversifies the company's risk profile.
Technically, the price in a developing ascending triangle pattern makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black trendlines on the main chart). This pattern indicates a gradual build-up in buying pressure as higher lows continue to form beneath a relatively stable resistance level. This structure often reflects increasing demand and accumulation within the market, supporting the bullish stance.
Seasonal trends since 2000 also give a constructive outlook for the share. From June onwards, the seasonal return profile becomes notably more constructive, with most months delivering positive average returns since 2000. June has historically produced a moderate average gain of +0.9%, followed by stronger performance in July (+2.7%) and August (+3.2%), suggesting improving market momentum during the mid-year period.
Upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | NRP |
| Industry | Real Estate Management & Development |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 101.77 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 13.78% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 1.87% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 142.86 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 148.57 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 120.01 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which also supports a bull case for the stock. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Growth (%) | 4.3 | 12.21 | 6.61 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Growth (%) | 4.6 | 5.65 | 6.32 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.61 | 10.35 | 9.71 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 7.77 | 8.21 | 8.73 | |
| The company is set to deliver positive earnings growth, with an attractive dividend yield over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | REM - Time to exit (Close the position) |
OMU - Stop loss (Close the position) |
BTI - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 181.66 | 13.85 | 976.99 | 36.74 |
| Current Price | 189.10 | 12.90 | 1 074.74 | 36.58 |
| Movement | +4.1% | -6.9% | +10% | -0.4% |
| Comment | The stock has reached its time exit, prompting us to close the position. | The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. | The developing bullish pennant pattern remains of interest, with the share trading above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade idea. We maintain our R1202.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss at R1024.00. | The developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest, with the share trading just above its 200-day SMA. Strong downside momentum remains a concern. We maintain a profit target at R42.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R34.50. |
| Time to exit | 4 November 2026 | 3 August 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | GLD - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SSW - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 727.25 | 53.67 |
| Current Price | 684.01 | 46.75 |
| Movement | -5.9% | -12.9% |
| Comment | The favourable AI forecast and Elliott Wave Theory, indicating the onset of wave 5 alignment, remain of interest. The share continues trading above its 200-day SMA, although downside momentum remains a concern. We maintain our R850.00 target, with both the initial and trailing stop-loss at R677.00. | The developing broadening-top pattern remains of interest, although the share has dipped below its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum remains a concern. We maintain our R76.00 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R45.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 August 2026 | 20 July 2026 |
