Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We enter a long position with a target price of $150 and a stop-loss of $107.
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, generating roughly 5.5 to 5.7 million ounces (Moz) of attributable gold annually, alongside 120 to 150 kilotonnes (kt) of copper. It also produces silver, lead and zinc. Its diversified asset base spans key jurisdictions including North America, Australia, Africa, and South America, supported by substantial attributable proven and probable gold reserves of ~118.2 Moz. Costs remain competitive, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $1 609/oz. in FY25 amid inflationary and integration pressures. The company operates with minimal hedging, leaving earnings highly leveraged to spot gold prices.
Technically, the price action in a developing Elliott wave 5 price action presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the number notation on the main chart as well as the insert). The apparent onset of wave 5 within the structure may further support upside potential for the stock, as Wave 5 is typically associated with the final impulsive advance within a prevailing bullish trend.
The stock also appears to be transitioning through an accumulation phase within the Wyckoff cycle, with rising volume expectations pointing to increasing institutional participation.
The stock is above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as well. Fading downside pressure on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and a rising On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator are also bullish signals.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | NEM |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (USD) | 127.78 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 142.18% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 20.13% |
| Current Price (USD) | 119.69 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 134.88 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 48.27 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has rallied over the last 12 months with several technical indicators guiding for further upside potential in the current cycle. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 6.89 | 10.39 | 11.88 | 12.23 |
| Growth (%) | 50.75 | 14.40 | 2.89 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| Growth (%) | 3.60 | 2.61 | 12.70 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.52 | 10.07 | 9.79 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.87 | 0.89 | 1.00 | |
| Near-term earnings and dividend prospects remain attractive, with management seeing clear opportunities to enhance the longevity of the group's portfolio and preserve asset integrity through targeted investments in critical infrastructure. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | MMM - Close the position (Stop-loss) |
AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ORLY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CVX - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 152.55 | 307.03 | 93.92 | 192.64 |
| Current Price | 141.56 | 314.31 | 91.84 | 185.95 |
| Movement | -7.2% | +2.4% | -2.2% | -3.5% |
| Comment | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. | The price is testing the lower range of an upsloping inclining channel pattern, which remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA but fading downside momentum continues to support the strategy. Our profit target is $352 with a trailing stop-loss at $304. | The price action within a developing falling wedge pattern remains interesting. The price remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target remains at $109, with a trailing stop-loss at $89. | The developing Elliott wave structure remains of interest, although the share continues trading below its 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend strategy. Downside momentum remains a concern. Our profit target remains at $220, with a trailing stop-loss at $181. |
| Time to exit | 24 June 2026 | 8 July 2026 | 2 June 2026 | 15 July 2026 |
