Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R76. We recommend a stop-loss at R45.
Sibanye-Stillwater is a producer of gold and platinum in South Africa (SA) and the United States (US). Sibanye is primarily involved in underground and surface mining and related activities, including extraction and processing. The company has recently branched into the battery supply chain, with several new acquisitions in this space at various stages of completion.
The price is in a developing broadening-top pattern, which makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black diverging trendlines on the main chart). This suggests ongoing buying interest despite wider price swings. A breakout above the upper boundary of the pattern would signal strengthening bullish momentum and potential continuation of the uptrend, with the expanding range reflecting rising participation rather than distribution, especially if supported by positive volume and momentum trends.
The dominance of bullish weekly price swings (see the insert) over shorter, corrective bearish moves reinforces the positive outlook for the share. The heatmap shows consistent clusters of upward momentum, indicating sustained buying pressure, while downside moves remain limited and temporary. The recent return of bullish swings after consolidation further suggests that investors are continuing to accumulate on weakness, supporting the view that the medium-term trend remains constructive.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R56.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SSW |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 152.34 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 141.50% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -8.79% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 53.82 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 85.43 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 20.40 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price's ability to hold above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R51.62 reinforces a constructive bullish outlook, as this level is acting as strong technical support. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 2.44 | 13.29 | 13.88 | 10.91 |
| Growth (%) | 444.51 | 4.50 | -21.40 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 1.31 | 4.57 | 4.65 | 3.83 |
| Growth (%) | 249.01 | 1.68 | -17.57 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 4.05 | 3.88 | 4.93 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 8.49 | 8.64 | 7.12 | |
| Consensus forecasts point to a strong boost in short-term earnings given the recent rally in commodity prices, before normalising in later years. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
GLD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
OMU SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
REM SA - Buy (Approaching time exit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 976.99 | 727.25 | 13.85 | 181.66 |
| Current Price | 951.02 | 713.39 | 13.35 | 188.00 |
| Movement | -2.7% | -1.9% | -3.6% | +3.5% |
| Comment | The bullish pennant formation remains constructive, with price action holding above the 200-day SMA. Short-term downside momentum remains a concern. Our profit target is R1 202.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R906.00. | The favourable AI forecast and Elliott Wave Theory alignment, with the possible onset of Wave 5, remains supportive of the trade idea. The price continues to hold above its 200-day simple moving average, although downside momentum remains a concern. Our target remains at R850.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R688.50. | The potential onset of Wave 5 within the Elliott Wave structure remains supportive of the trade idea. The price continues to test its 200-day simple moving average, while fading downside momentum adds to the constructive outlook. Our profit target remains at R16.30, with a trailing stop-loss set at R12.90. | The onset of Wave 5 within the Elliott Wave structure remains supportive of the trade idea. The price continues to trade above its 200-day simple moving average, although fading upside momentum remains a concern. Our profit target remains at R204.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R183.00. |
| Time to exit | 4 November 2026 | 17 August 2026 | 29 June 2026 | 18 May 2026 |
