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SPM Best Ideas - Offshore - May 2026

 

By Chantal Marx, Pritu Makan, Sithembile Bopela, Zimele Mbanjwa, Motheo Tlhagale, Khumbulani Kunene

Brunello Cucinelli (BC IM)

Brunello Cucinelli operates as an Italian luxury fashion house that designs and creates high-end ready-to-wear apparel and lifestyle products. Operations are divided into balanced retail and wholesale distribution channels, supported by a network of approximately 400 highly qualified multi-brand partners. Their global reach extends across international markets, catering to a loyal customer base while continuously acquiring new clients worldwide. Positioned at the absolute highest end of the sector, this Casa di Moda leverages an overarching strategy focused on exceptional craftsmanship and capitalising on the increasing global demand for superior quality.

    • Rising global demand for unrivalled artisanal craftsmanship and high-quality luxury apparel provides a powerful tailwind for the brand which captures discerning consumers while supporting sustained revenue expansion across key international markets.
    • Robust new client acquisition perfectly complements a highly loyal existing customer base while supporting sustained revenue expansion which protects long-term brand exclusivity thereby leading to a highly predictable financial performance across global markets.
    • An elevated brand image positioned within the most exclusive tier of luxury creates exceptional pricing power which protects profit margins while supporting enduring customer loyalty across global markets thereby ensuring sustainable revenue growth
    • A highly balanced distribution framework between direct retail and wholesale channels provides robust revenue diversification ensuring a consistent financial performance while supporting long-term brand exclusivity thereby minimising exposure to regional economic downturns.
    • Unfavourable general economic conditions could reduce luxury consumer spending across major global markets which might lower overall sales volumes while leading to significant margin pressure for this premium Italian apparel brand

For the first quarter of 2026, the company reported total revenue of €369.1 million, representing a 14% increase at constant exchange rates. This robust performance was driven by the retail channel, which reached 64.5% of total sales, bolstered by accelerating demand in the Americas and strong growth in China.

Looking ahead, management forecasts revenue growth of approximately 10% at constant exchange rates for both the full-year 2026 and 2027. This positive outlook is underpinned by the brand's exclusive positioning and resilient demand at the very top end of the luxury market.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (2330 TT, TSM US)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company pioneered the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers' products. As a foundry, TSMC manufactures semiconductors using its manufacturing process based on proprietary integrated circuit (IC) designs provided by its customers. The company does not design, manufacture, or market any semiconductor products under its own name and therefore does not compete with its customers.

    • TSMC is the leading player in a growing industry with high barriers to entry. It is the dominant player in leading-edge semiconductor technology where it has a major competitive advantage and a majority market share in the most advanced process nodes
    • TSMC will continue to benefit from future growth in the semiconductor foundry industry, fuelled by increasing semiconductor content in new technologies and increases in integrated device manufacturer (IDM) outsourcing.
    • The company has a strong balance sheet that will support further capacity roll-out.
    • We believe its market dominance and advanced technologies will help it to achieve double-digit sales growth and stable operating margins over time.
    • Looking ahead, the semiconductor market is projected to reach $1 trillion in 2026, driven by AI chip demand, which is expected to benefit logic chip customers like TSMC. As a result, TSMC is positioned as the primary beneficiary of the ongoing semiconductor innovation cycle, with expectations of high-20% revenue and earnings per share (EPS) compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years, driven by accelerating demand from AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and adjacent end markets.
    • In addition, strengthening AI sentiment and the acceleration of data centre capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth are potential growth drivers for TSMC.

The group has seen an exceptional start to FY26, with key financial metrics materially outperforming guidance and market expectations. Revenue growth over the first quarter was driven by sustained and accelerating demand for leading edge process technologies. Overall, strength was broad based at the technology level, reflecting both volume growth and favourable mix as the company's customers continue to prioritise advanced-node capacity for AI accelerators, high-performance processors, and cloud infrastructure. The group's margin profile was also a standout, with gross and operating margins reaching cycle highs, highlighting the group's scalability, particularly as advanced-node volumes rise. TSMC also boasts strong cash generation capabilities, as seen during 1Q26, despite the elevated capital intensity needed to fund aggressive investment while maintaining a robust balance sheet.

Guidance for 2Q26 outpaced expectations at the midpoint with double-digit sequential growth and stable-to-slightly higher margins. Over the medium term, management characterised capacity constraints as structural rather than cyclical, noting that even with accelerated capital deployment, supply is likely to remain tight for several years given long fab build and ramp timelines.

While the share price has been on a strong upward rally, a recent pullback amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as those between the United States and China has provided an attractive entry point into TSMC. This aligns with the recent updated “outperform” ratings from several research houses.

TSMC is trading on a forward PE of 20.3 times, above its long-term rating, but with a solid medium-term growth outlook.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR US; PTETNC; PTETNQ)

Palantir Technologies specialises in advanced software solutions used to analyse and engineer large-scale data sets, ultimately helping customers to understand and find insightful solutions to complex challenges. The company, which was founded in 2003, was initially focused on government work (particularly for intelligence and defence purposes), but has since expanded into the commercial space, serving clients across industries including Financial Services, Healthcare, and Manufacturing. Through its main platforms (Apollo, Artificial Intelligence, Foundry and Gotham) customers can leverage data and analytics for various purposes, such as enhancing the decision-making process, optimising the operational value chain, and supporting security-related objectives.

    • Palantir is a market leader, holding a dominant position in the business analytics and intelligence space. The company offers comprehensive software solutions (with advanced data integration and AI capabilities) for complex data challenges.
    • The long-term nature of Palantir's government and commercial contracts supports a stable revenue profile with recurring cash flows.
    • The company's ongoing expansion beyond the government sector offers significant opportunity for revenue and earnings growth, particularly as data analytics become integral to a client's business strategy.
    • In recent years, Palantir has shifted its focus toward margins, profitability, and cash flows, supporting efforts aimed at developing a sustainable long-term business model.
    • Palantir has been investing heavily in AI technology to enhance its existing product offering. With recent advancements in machine learning, large language models (LLMs), and generative-predictive text (GPT), the company has been able to significantly upgrade its platforms with capabilities for natural language processing as well as predictive analytics, allowing clients to engage more intuitively with data, improving the business intelligence process.
    • Strategic foresight into quantum computing positions the company as a frontrunner in the space, providing a potential competitive advantage involving unprecedented analytical capabilities.

In terms of the group's FY25 performance, Palantir delivered robust numbers, maintaining solid momentum throughout the year. The top-line performance, which came in ahead of market expectations, was underpinned by solid traction across both government and commercial segments on the back of accelerated AI adoption and higher defence software demand (particularly within the United States (US) government following a contract with the US Navy valued at ~$480 million). The expansion in the customer base, highlighted by increasing new customers amid a solid customer retention from existing customers, was supportive to the performance. Profitability was also strong in the period and reflected a solid operational performance, supported by the robust revenue generation, while strong cost control was supportive to the margin expansion as well as the earnings growth. Cash generated from operations posted high-double-digit growth and the cash pile grew further during the period - positioning the business well to continue funding growth.

Management's outlook was encouraging, with guidance at the time tracking ahead of market consensus. Management remains confident in the company's ability to produce “remarkable” products while securing a strong pipeline of work. Near-term priorities include speed to production and transformational scale to drive enterprise scale and maintain market leadership.

Consensus also remains bullish on the company's potential to achieve sustained growth and profitability, particularly as it expands its commercial footprint and leverages new AI capabilities. This is reflected by strong optimism in financial forecasts.

Overall, the counter is trading on a forward PE of ~79.7 times, and while it is expected to unwind over time and estimates are likely to be upgraded again, it will take a very long time for the company to grow into a more reasonable valuation.

Safran SA (SAF FP)

Safran is an international high technology group operating across aviation, defence, and space, and is a leading global supplier of critical function equipment including aircraft and helicopter engines, launch vehicle propulsion, landing and braking systems, optronics, electrical systems, biometric solutions, explosives detection and safety components.

    • The company operates through three segments: Propulsion (50% of revenue), Equipment & Defence (40%) and Aircraft Interiors (10%), serving global aviation and defence customers.
    • Its largest revenue contributors are the Americas (~33%) and Europe (23%) excluding France (~19%), with additional exposure to Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East
    • Safran's broad customer base includes major aeronautics manufacturers, airlines, armed forces and space clients such as European Space Agency (ESA), along with partners including Thales, Airbus, KNDS and BAE Systems.
    • The company is also a key player in the military market, contributing to both ballistic and tactical missile systems.
    • Amid heightened geopolitical tensions from the Russia Ukraine conflict to rising intra NATO strains, European defence spending is undergoing its fastest expansion in decades. The European Defence Agency (EDA) notes member states are targeting defence budgets of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, up from ~2.1% in 2025. Much of this spending is being directed towards munitions replenishment, production capacity increases, and air and naval programmes, all areas closely aligned with Safran's core capabilities.

Safran's 1Q26 results were comfortably ahead of expectations. Revenue growth of 18.8% to €8.6 billion (+23% organic) was mainly driven by an unexpectedly strong 63% surge in LEAP engine deliveries (which power Airbus and Boeing narrowbody aircraft) and civil aerospace aftermarket services sales which rose 29.3% y/y. Military engine revenue rose on higher volumes of fighter jet engines paired with a lucrative export mix, while order intakes for defence throughout Europe maintained strong momentum.

Following the top-line beat, management expressed heightened confidence as the strong start to the year reinforces their ability to reach the high end of full-year revenue guidance of low- to mid-teens growth.

Notwithstanding the upside risks to energy costs and interest rates, Safran is also positioned to benefit from a sustained capex cycle in commercial aviation as airlines accelerate fleet renewal and expand capacity to meet demand.

Safran trades on a 25.7 times forward PE, comfortably within its long-term fair value range, but a discount relative to the broader European aerospace and defence sector.

Boston Scientific (BSX US)

Boston Scientific is a global medical technology company focused on the development, manufacturing and commercialisation of minimally invasive devices used across a range of interventional procedures. The group operates across cardiology, electrophysiology, endoscopy, urology and neuromodulation, with products primarily used in hospital cath labs, operating theatres and specialist care settings.

    • The company operates in a structurally attractive segment of healthcare, supported by an ageing population, rising prevalence of chronic disease and the continued shift toward minimally invasive procedures that improve outcomes and reduce system costs
    • Its business model is built on a business-to-business (B2B) framework, combining in-house R&D (~9-10% of sales), manufacturing and global distribution, with revenue linked to procedure volumes rather than discretionary spending.
    • High switching costs provide durability, as physician training and workflow integration create stickiness once devices are adopted, particularly in electrophysiology and cardiac rhythm management.
    • Boston Scientific has built a diversified portfolio across multiple therapy areas, reducing reliance on any single product and supporting a more stable growth profile
    • A favourable mix of single-use devices supports attractive margins, with ongoing operating leverage driving steady profitability improvement
    • The company is well positioned in key growth segments, notably electrophysiology (driven by pulsed-field ablation) and left atrial appendage closure, where its Watchman platform remains a leading solution. A disciplined bolt-on acquisition strategy enhances innovation capacity and expands exposure to faster-growing adjacencies.

The group has delivered consistent revenue growth and improving profitability, supported by strong procedure volumes and a favourable mix. Gross margins have remained stable at ~70%, while operating margins have expanded through scale efficiencies, and cash flow generation has strengthened to support reinvestment and acquisitions.

In 1Q26, Boston Scientific reported solid results, with revenue growth of 11.6% to $5.2 billion (organic: +9.4% y/y) and adjusted EPS of $0.80, up 6.7% y/y. However, management revised full-year guidance lower, reducing organic growth expectations to between 6.5% to 8% and trimming EPS guidance to between $3.34 to $3.41 (previously $3.43 to $3.49). This represents a reset in near-term expectations and increases reliance on second-half execution.

Despite this, the balance sheet remains strong and within investment-grade parameters, providing flexibility for continued investment and resilience through healthcare funding cycles. Looking ahead, growth remains supported by non-discretionary healthcare demand, ongoing innovation and gradual international expansion, although hospital spending cycles and competition may introduce volatility

While the share price saw some pressure following the guidance reset, we view this as a more attractive valuation entry point. Boston Scientific trades at a forward PE multiple of ~18.6 times, below its historical average (~26.6 times) and at a slight discount to peers despite remaining broadly comparable to large cap medtech peers.

Consensus sentiment remains positive (~35% upside potential from current levels), suggesting confidence in the company's medium-term growth trajectory despite near-term adjustments. Overall, Boston Scientific represents a high-quality defensive growth business, combining structural demand, strong cash generation and a consistent execution-led growth profile.

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