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Economics

Economics weekly

Some emerging market central banks are cutting rates, why not SA?

After recording an average of 8.7% in 2022, global inflation fell to 6.8% in 2023 and is expected fall further to 5.9% this year. By 2026, it should settle slightly below the historical average of 3.8%. This trend is driven by declining inflation in advanced economies, which is expected to fall from 4.6% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, reaching the conventional 2% target by 2025. However, a different story applies to emerging markets where inflation is expected to remain steady at 8.3% in 2024 and slow in 2026 to 6.2%.

10 May 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output drags GDP growth in 1Q24

09 May 2024

Economics Weekly

Navigating economic challenges amid delayed interest rate cuts and global uncertainty

03 May 2024

Economics Weekly

High for longer: A quick pulse check on the credit market

26 April 2024

Economics weekly

The global economy shows some resilience but we are not out of the woods yet

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its latest set of macroeconomic forecasts, alongside a view on global financial stability and fiscal developments. Highlighted in all of these reports is the difficult era of elevated interest rates, debt, as well as physical and cyber risks. These all have a bearing on economic performance, which has already weakened on reduced total factor productivity.

19 April 2024

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation slows more than expected in March

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Retail sales declined in February

17 April 2024

Economics weekly

A portion of the economy is feeling the strain amid tighter financial conditions

12 April 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output continued to show further growth in February

11 April 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output experienced a significant growth surge in February

Total mining production, not seasonally adjusted, expanded strongly by 9.9% y/y in February, following an upwardly revised decline of 2.8% y/y (previously reported as a 3.3% decline) in January.

11 April 2024

Economics weekly

1Q24 economic activity data still mixed

05 April 2024

Flash Notes

QES: Formal sector jobs lost in 4Q23

26 March 2024

Economics weekly

MPC perils: Sticky global inflation and adverse risk sentiment

22 March 2024

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation lifts yet again in February

20 March 2024

Economics Weekly

Where to for the building sector?

The FNB/BER Building Confidence index, a composite index gauging sentiment in the entire building value chain, plunged by 16 points in 1Q24 to reach 27 points. This represents the lowest level since 1Q21 when the country was under Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. The souring sentiment in 1Q24 follows two quarters of confidence gains, which aroused hopes that a sustained uptrend may be on the cards for the building sector.

15 March 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output surprised to the upside at the start of 2024

14 March 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output fell short of expectations in December 2023

14 March 2024

Property

A sideways movement in house prices, in line with expectations

13 March 2024

Economics Weekly

Analysing gross fixed capital formation trends

08 March 2024

Flash Notes

4Q23 GDP: Resilient economy narrowly escapes technical recession

As expected, the economy narrowly avoided entering a technical recession in the final quarter of 2023, with a modest expansion of 0.1% q/q, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction in 3Q23. However, this outcome fell below our 0.7% expectation and the Reuters consensus prediction of a 0.3% expansion.

05 March 2024

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Flash Notes

Manufacturing output drags GDP growth in 1Q24

09 May 2024

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation slows more than expected in March

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Retail sales declined in February

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output continued to show further growth in February

11 April 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output experienced a significant growth surge in February

11 April 2024

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).