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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Steris plc (STE) - BUY

 

By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa

Steris plc is a leading provider of infection prevention, sterilisation, and surgical products and services. The company serves a broad range of industries, including healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and medical device manufacturing.

Steris offers its customers a unique mix of innovative products and services. These include consumable products, such as detergents, endoscopy accessories, barrier products, instruments and tools; services, including equipment installation and maintenance, microbial reduction of medical devices, instrument and scope repair, laboratory testing, and outsourced reprocessing; capital equipment, such as sterilisers, surgical tables, and automated endoscope reprocessors and connectivity solutions such as operating room integration.

Technically, the price is forming a trough in an Elliott wave, which presents a promising investment opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). Significant troughs like Wave 13 often signal the end of a corrective phase and the potential beginning of a new impulse wave to the upside. If this trough aligns with important Fibonacci retracement levels of the prior impulse wave, it further strengthens the case for a bullish reversal.

The price is between major support and resistance that acts as additional bullish support (see black converging trendlines on the main chart).

Further support is evidenced by a confluence of the stock's 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMAs).

Fading downside price momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and recent upward trajectory of the On-balance volume (OBV) indicator, support a bullish trend direction

Share Information
Share Code STE
Industry Health Care Equipment & Services
Market Capital (USD) 21.44 billion
One Year Total Return 2.07%
Return Year-to-Date 5.66%
Current Price (USD) 217.20
52 Week High (USD) 248.24
52 Week Low (USD) 197.82
Financial Year End March
The stock has gotten off to a decent start this year and various technical indicators point to continued upside.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 8.83 9.05 9.66 10.27
Growth (%) 2.54 6.70 6.30
Dividend Per Share (USD) 2.03 2.26 2.31 2.62
Growth (%) 11.23 2.21 13.30
Forward PE (times) 23.99 22.48 21.15
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 1.04 1.06 1.20
The group is expected to maintain steady earnings growth over the medium term, but behind its long-term double-digit adjusted EPS growth ambitions.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower graph shows occurrences of Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence signals, denoted by a reading of 1. A bullish divergence on the RSI supports a long case for a stock as it indicates that downside momentum is weakening, even as the stock price continues to make lower lows. It often signals that selling pressure is fading and buyers are beginning to regain control, increasing the likelihood of a reversal to the upside.
    • Our recommended entry range is $213 to $222, or as close as possible to $222.86 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $239, representing ~10% upside from current levels.
    • Based on the forward calculation of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, the stock will be overbought at ~ $295, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is mid-April 2025, but investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $208, ~4.2% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals, and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate fluctuations in the price and therefore suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $222.

Fundamental view

    • The Company operates through three reporting segments:
      • Healthcare (~70% of revenue), which provides a comprehensive offering for healthcare providers worldwide, focused on sterile processing departments and procedural centres, such as operating rooms and endoscopy suites.
      • Applied Sterilization Technologies (AST) (~19%), which supports medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturers through a global network of contract sterilisation and laboratory testing facilities, and integrated sterilisation equipment and control systems.
      • Life Sciences (~11%), which provides products and services designed to support biopharmaceutical and medical device research and manufacturing facilities, particularly those focused on aseptic manufacturing.
    • The group's revenues are divided into service revenue, consumables revenue, and capital equipment revenues. About 79% of revenue is recurring. The diversified nature of its segments continues to be a benefit to its total performance and the diversified nature of its business also continues to be a benefit to its total performance.
    • In 2Q25, the group reported consensus beating earnings growth on the back of an in line revenue decline. The Healthcare segment reported improved revenue and operating income due to better volume, price, and productivity. The AST segment also grew revenue, but operating income declined due, in part, to increased labour and energy costs and a loss incurred on a large capital equipment sale. Life Sciences saw a decline in revenue due to the divestiture of one of its units in April 2024. Nevertheless, operating income still grew due to improved prices and favourable mix. The group generated strong free cash flow, attributed to growth in earnings and improved working capital.
    • The outlook for the rest of the financial year is somewhat mixed. Life Science revenue is anticipated to be about flat, with declines in capital equipment somewhat mitigated by the strength in consumables. Healthcare is anticipated to grow mid- to-high-single digits, with continued strength in recurring revenues. The outlook for AST is high-single-digit revenue growth.
    • The group has a history of double-digit adjusted EPS growth on mid-to-high-single-digit revenue growth. It is the company's long-term objective to resume this trend.
    • From a risk perspective, the group has been impacted by macro pressures such as a rise in supply-chain and labour costs. The group also holds several patents across various regions globally, but the protection a patent provides varies from country to country. Expiry of a key patent can have significant effects on revenue. The business is subject to various degrees of governmental regulation in the countries in which it operates. Competition is tight across all of the group's segments.

Share Name and Position KMX US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
TDG US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
AMGN US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 76.44 1 292.86 267.10
Current 81.99 1 349.98 277.88
Movement +7.3% +4.4% +4%
A developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average, however downside price momentum is concerning.

Our profit target remains at $90.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $76.80. Exit the trade by 31 January 2025.
A smaller steep upward tilting inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Price is above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $1 500.00 with a trailing stop-loss $1 276.00. Exit the trade by 14 February 2025.
The price is in a steady upward trend, which remains of interest. Price is above its 200-week SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $300.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $263.50. Exit the trade by 26 March 2025.

Share Name and Position XLK US - Close
(Time to exit)
DOV US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
LHX US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 230.09 194.48 222.86
Current 241.82 199.15 219.79
Movement +5.1% +2.4% -1.4%
The trade has reached our proposed time to exit, and we closed the trade. Seasonal trends in the price remains of interest. Price is above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $214.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $191. Exit the trade by 9 May 2025.
A price action in a developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. The remains above its 200-week SMA. Fading downside price momentum supports the trade strategy.

Our profit target remains at $246.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $214. Exit the trade by 2 April 2025.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.