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Economics Weekly

Economics Weekly

Brent crude balances geopolitical risks and supply expectations

Brent crude oil prices continue to navigate an exceptionally uncertain geopolitical landscape, with tensions in the Middle East remaining elevated and the Strait of Hormuz continuing to face significant disruptions. Under normal circumstances, such developments would be expected to trigger a sustained surge in oil prices given the Strait's critical role in global energy trade. Instead, while Brent prices have experienced periods of heightened volatility, they have remained more contained than many market participants initially anticipated.

07 August 2026

Economics Weekly

Resilient credit demand masks household-corporate divergence

31 July 2026

Economics Weekly

SARB pauses, but the fight for 3% inflation is far from over

24 July 2026

Economics Weekly

MPC Preview: Domestic inflation expectations set to keep SARB hawkish

17 July 2026

Economics Weekly

Outlook update: Near-term pressures, but medium-term prospects remain constructive

The domestic macroeconomic environment remains challenging in the near term but is expected to become increasingly supportive over the medium term. Real GDP growth is projected to improve modestly from 1.1% in 2025 to around 1.2% in 2026 (revised up from our previous forecast of 1.0%), reflecting positive carry-over effects from the stronger-than-expected first-quarter outcome. Growth is expected to strengthen further to 1.3% in 2027 and around 2.0% by 2028/29. Although our latest near-term forecast remains below our pre-war projection, reflecting the economic effects of the Middle East conflict, the medium-term outlook remains constructive. Lower borrowing costs and continued structural reforms are expected to gradually improve business confidence, investment and employment, providing a firmer foundation for stronger economic growth.

10 July 2026

Economics Weekly

Inflation expectations complicate the monetary policy outlook

03 July 2026

Economics Weekly

Factory-gate pressures rebuild

26 June 2026

Economics Weekly

Property market tells a story of improving SA dynamics

19 June 2026

Economics Weekly

Gradual rand stabilisation despite persistent global uncertainty

12 June 2026

Economics Weekly

General household survey 2025: Implications for property markets

The latest General Household Survey (GHS) points to structural shifts in South Africa's (SA) housing tenure, with demand increasingly tilting toward rental rather than ownership. This reflects the interaction of robust household formation, weaker affordability, and more constrained mortgage access, alongside persistent urbanisation. However, there is likely continued divergence between those who can afford to and prefer to own property, and households with financial constraints. To focus on underlying trends, the analysis compares 2019 with 2025, thereby avoiding distortions associated with the 2020 Covid-19 disruption. This note explores the implications of these trends for property markets.

05 June 2026

Economics Weekly

A measured hike but a very hawkish MPC statement

29 May 2026

Economics Weekly

Inflation has accelerated; will interest rates follow?

22 May 2026

Economics Weekly

SA bleeds jobs at the start of 2026, the pressure could persist

15 May 2026

Economics Weekly

SARB signals cautious flexibility amid a large supply shock from the Middle East war

08 May 2026

Economics Weekly

Another major global disruption weighs on prospects

The 2020s have been plagued by multiple shocks. The gradual lifting of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns resulted in a combination of supply- and demand-side shocks which dampened growth prospects at the start of the decade. Thereafter, a cyclical recovery was interrupted by renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 which ushered in tighter financial conditions. In 2024, monetary policy easing began but concerns over global trade conditions mounted following presidential elections in the United States (US). In line with this, 2025 was dominated by tariff escalation and economic fracturing. Nevertheless, financial conditions remained conducive, and global activity proved resilient. We now confront a new geopolitical crisis that has generated an energy price shock and threatens global prospects. Once again, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded growth forecasts, as it did this time last year, but can growth prove more resilient than feared?

24 April 2026

Economics weekly

Calm before the storm for consumers?

17 April 2026

Economics weekly

Updated macro projections amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty

10 April 2026

Economics weekly

A hold during the storm

27 March 2026

Economics weekly

Monetary policy: Shifting expectations in volatile times

20 March 2026

Economics weekly

War in the Middle East: The likely macroeconomic transmission

The recent military conflict in the Middle East has rattled global markets. While oil prices were initially upheld by an elevated risk premium, recent events have shifted the market focus toward physical supply disruptions. The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the global oil supply from the Middle East transits, alongside risks to oil-related infrastructure, increases the likelihood of sticky freight costs and material supply disruptions. The risk also extends to natural gas and fertiliser supply, amplifying cost pressures. While we continue to monitor the situation, we would be remiss if we didn’t consider the transmission of these developments to the macroeconomic outlook.

13 March 2026

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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