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Economics Weekly

Economics weekly

Monetary and fiscal policy: The nexus

The National Budget has finally been tabled, exhibiting tight fiscal manoeuvring as confidence and growth hang in the balance. Ultimately, the budget reflected slippage as spending pressures persist, and while tax increases have reduced the spillover to the deficit and borrowing requirement, fiscal policy is looser than previously envisioned. Importantly, this is at a time when monetary policy has gradually become less restrictive on economic activity and is expected to be neutral by the end of the year. Question is, does the fiscal outlook warrant more caution on the monetary front?

14 March 2025

Economics Weekly

2025 Budget Review: Balancing fiscal discipline and economic growth

12 March 2025

Economics weekly

Budget 2025 postponement and key highlights

07 March 2025

Economics Weekly

Let's talk about the Laffer curve

28 February 2025

Economics weekly

Budget 2025 postponement and key highlights

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was scheduled to table the 2025 Budget on 19 February-the first under the Government of National Unity. However, in an unprecedented eleventh-hour announcement, the budget was postponed to 12 March. The delay appears to centre on discussions regarding a potential VAT rate increase from 15% to 17%.

21 February 2025

Economics Weekly

2025 Budget preview: Balancing fiscal consolidation and growth priorities

14 February 2025

Economics Weekly

Consumer credit trends in 3Q24: A mixed outlook for borrowers

07 February 2025

Economics Weekly

MPC extends cutting cycle, but the outlook is challenging

31 January 2025

Economics Weekly

Multiple risks abound but sticking to fundamentals should usher in another cut

24 January 2025

Economics Weekly

FNB HPI and Stats SA's RPPI: A comparative analysis

In this note, we explore the methodologies underlying South Africa's two key house price indices: Stats SA's Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and FNB's House Price Index (HPI). While both indices aim at capturing housing market trends, they employ distinct approaches, each offering unique strengths and limitations. For real estate practitioners and policymakers, a clear understanding of these differences is essential for accurately interpreting the insights that each index provides about the housing market.

29 December 2024

Economics weekly

Economic outlook update: Weaker agriculture drags 2024 growth

09 December 2024

Economics weekly

SARB maintains gradual cutting cycle

22 November 2024

Economics weekly

Expectations ahead of the final MPC meeting for 2024

15 November 2024

Economics weekly

A new chapter for fiscal policy

08 November 2024

Economics weekly

2024 MTBPS: Emphasis on public-private infrastructure investment for inclusive and sustainable growth

In this year's Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Treasury once again referenced the public and private sector fixed investment chart (Figure 1), raising two key concerns. Firstly, fixed investment remains significantly below the 30% of GDP target set by the National Development Plan, and secondly, Treasury underscored the importance of robust public and private sector fixed investment as a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.

01 November 2024

Economics weekly

2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement: Balancing consolidation and growth

30 October 2024

Economics weekly

Budget Preview: 2024 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement

25 October 2024

Economics weekly

2Q24 Credit markets paint a mixed picture

18 October 2024

Economics weekly

The Middle East boiling pot: A key risk to our outlook

11 October 2024

Economics weekly

Turning the corner: SA's economic prospects in 2024 and beyond

The South African economy is experiencing a modest recovery following lacklustre post-pandemic growth of 0.7% in 2023. This slow growth largely reflected the severe impact of record levels of electricity load-shedding and the cost-of-living crisis. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) estimated that load-shedding reduced GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points (ppts) in 2023. However, this drag is expected to be minimal in 2024 at just -0.13ppts, with no further impact projected for 2025 and 2026.

04 October 2024

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.